[Goose]

More on Turkey, Finland, and Sweden. Seems like Turkey really didn't get any concessions, mostly just some nice words. Maybe there has been behind the scenes movement on the F16s they wanted that hasn't been made public yet. In any case, a big win for NATO, a big L for Russia.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/28/world...rship.html

Turkey was never going to block Finland and Sweden from Joining NATO. 

How fast can they join?  And is there a way to sort of be unofficial members even though the legal documents and country government approvals are done yet?  I know Russia is screwing around with the baltic states, but having Sweden and Finland in NATO (or effectively in NATO) will make any hostile act toward the baltic NATO members a lot less likely with Finland and Russia sharing a border. It just seems getting those two effectively in the NATO fold ASAP, would be wise.

I think that has already been officially done. Before they filed the paperwork, both the head of NATO (Secretary-General Stoltenberg) and the US stated that the Article 5 protection would be in force while their applications were pending. I think that is the best that can be done. Effectively, both countries have been allied with the NATO forces for a while. The US and Sweden just finished a combined exercise in the Baltic.

As far as what Turkey got out of the deal, I think it is basically two things. The first set of things they got is outlined in
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-...ns/2625235. The arms embargoes are lifted. The PKK is reaffirmed as a terrorist organization and more strict enforcement is put in place, especially after July 1. Both of the new members agree not to supply aid to the PKK. These are not trivial concessions, both in substance and in domestic political effect in Turkey. Sweden and Finland both climbed down on the arms embargo and the PKK. What Turkey did not get was a blanket agreement to extradite whoever they may wish. They got an agreement to proceed expeditiously on their requests (which was not happening), but since they have no real evidence, these requests aren't going anywhere anyway. All in all, I think Turkey should be pretty happy on that front. They got their "respect".

The second thing I think Turkey got, although not written down anywhere, is the tacit acceptance of their incursions into Syria by the US (and by extension the rest of NATO). They were going to do it anyway. The arms embargo was about the previous time they did it. It hurts the Kurds that are (were?) allied to the US. We didn't much like that. However, it also hurts the Russians and puts more pressure on their troops (especially air force) in Syria. That we like. So, we made a virtue of necessity and said we still didn't like aspects of the incursion/invasion, but if you must, go ahead. We aren't going to apply new sanctions.

I don't think the F-16 issue was involved because I think the administration already has decided to allow the F-16 purchase and modernization. It is in our best interest. Anything that keeps Turkey inside the tent right now is good. We may have to figure out what Greece is going to get to keep them happy in response to Turkey becoming stronger in the air. Making sausage, but probably wise/necessary.

[Goose]

More on Turkey, Finland, and Sweden. Seems like Turkey really didn't get any concessions, mostly just some nice words. Maybe there has been behind the scenes movement on the F16s they wanted that hasn't been made public yet. In any case, a big win for NATO, a big L for Russia.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/28/world...rship.html

Turkey was never going to block Finland and Sweden from Joining NATO. 

How fast can they join?  And is there a way to sort of be unofficial members even though the legal documents and country government approvals are done yet?  I know Russia is screwing around with the baltic states, but having Sweden and Finland in NATO (or effectively in NATO) will make any hostile act toward the baltic NATO members a lot less likely with Finland and Russia sharing a border. It just seems getting those two effectively in the NATO fold ASAP, would be wise.

I think that has already been officially done. Before they filed the paperwork, both the head of NATO (Secretary-General Stoltenberg) and the US stated that the Article 5 protection would be in force while their applications were pending. I think that is the best that can be done. Effectively, both countries have been allied with the NATO forces for a while. The US and Sweden just finished a combined exercise in the Baltic.

As far as what Turkey got out of the deal, I think it is basically two things. The first set of things they got is outlined in
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-...ns/2625235. The arms embargoes are lifted. The PKK is reaffirmed as a terrorist organization and more strict enforcement is put in place, especially after July 1. Both of the new members agree not to supply aid to the PKK. These are not trivial concessions, both in substance and in domestic political effect in Turkey. Sweden and Finland both climbed down on the arms embargo and the PKK. What Turkey did not get was a blanket agreement to extradite whoever they may wish. They got an agreement to proceed expeditiously on their requests (which was not happening), but since they have no real evidence, these requests aren't going anywhere anyway. All in all, I think Turkey should be pretty happy on that front. They got their "respect".

The second thing I think Turkey got, although not written down anywhere, is the tacit acceptance of their incursions into Syria by the US (and by extension the rest of NATO). They were going to do it anyway. The arms embargo was about the previous time they did it. It hurts the Kurds that are (were?) allied to the US. We didn't much like that. However, it also hurts the Russians and puts more pressure on their troops (especially air force) in Syria. That we like. So, we made a virtue of necessity and said we still didn't like aspects of the incursion/invasion, but if you must, go ahead. We aren't going to apply new sanctions.

I don't think the F-16 issue was involved because I think the administration already has decided to allow the F-16 purchase and modernization. It is in our best interest. Anything that keeps Turkey inside the tent right now is good. We may have to figure out what Greece is going to get to keep them happy in response to Turkey becoming stronger in the air. Making sausage, but probably wise/necessary.