07-01-2022, 08:41 AM
Pac12 is definitely dead as a conference for sure.
In theory, I could see a megamerger kind of thing between the remnants of the Pac12 and B12 (maybe not all teams but most teams) to create another superconference, since superconferences seem to be how football will work moving forward. But, theory aside, in practice I don't see that working, because of the terrible geography coupled with the less than compelling lineup for the remaining "revenue draw" schools in the Pac12 (Oregon and UW).
More likely I think is a split up with perhaps UW and Oregon going to the B1G, the Arizona and Rockies schools going to the B12, and Cal and Stanford melting into something like the Mountain West, or perhaps leaving FBS altogether. I doubt that most of the B1G is interested in sharing revenue with the likes of Cal and Stanford. They have one Northwestern already, they don't need or want three of them. UO has a national TV name and can draw for marquee national matchups in TV games even though it doesn't have a large media market at home, and UW has a decent media market and a decent football name as well -- I can see those two generating some interest in the B1G, although it will be a harder sell to the entire league than SoCal was with its massive revenue and recruiting market.
In all a sad end to the Pacific conference, really. The contours of the national organization of the sport are changing dramatically such that it appears likely there will be 2 megaconferences, and then everyone else relegated to "non-mega", meaning non-televised (much), meaning non-revenue. It's all consolidating rapidly right now.
While it's sad, I really wonder how much I care at this point. CFB is so dysfunctional in so many ways currently (in particular its extreme top-heaviness), that the existing conference schemes were already losing their substance in many ways for a number of years. They had the air of anachronism in them given that the gravitas of the entire sport had been translated upward into a tiny clique of teams, institutionally supported by the playoff scheme (which will likely be slightly expanded in a 2 mega-conference scenario), with everything else being, de facto, diminished. What we are seeing is the rest of the institutional structures being "gleichgeschaltet" with what the TV giants want, as was the case with the playoff itself.
I am sure there are lots of interesting conversations taking place among the ADs of the remaining Pac12 schools. I am wondering how viable Stanford's approach to athletics remains, over the long term, with a greatly diminished revenue stream from the money sports, among other things, but for the moment the issue is whether anything is salvageable or not -- I am guessing that if it is, it won't be for Stanford and Cal, but for UO and UW.
In theory, I could see a megamerger kind of thing between the remnants of the Pac12 and B12 (maybe not all teams but most teams) to create another superconference, since superconferences seem to be how football will work moving forward. But, theory aside, in practice I don't see that working, because of the terrible geography coupled with the less than compelling lineup for the remaining "revenue draw" schools in the Pac12 (Oregon and UW).
More likely I think is a split up with perhaps UW and Oregon going to the B1G, the Arizona and Rockies schools going to the B12, and Cal and Stanford melting into something like the Mountain West, or perhaps leaving FBS altogether. I doubt that most of the B1G is interested in sharing revenue with the likes of Cal and Stanford. They have one Northwestern already, they don't need or want three of them. UO has a national TV name and can draw for marquee national matchups in TV games even though it doesn't have a large media market at home, and UW has a decent media market and a decent football name as well -- I can see those two generating some interest in the B1G, although it will be a harder sell to the entire league than SoCal was with its massive revenue and recruiting market.
In all a sad end to the Pacific conference, really. The contours of the national organization of the sport are changing dramatically such that it appears likely there will be 2 megaconferences, and then everyone else relegated to "non-mega", meaning non-televised (much), meaning non-revenue. It's all consolidating rapidly right now.
While it's sad, I really wonder how much I care at this point. CFB is so dysfunctional in so many ways currently (in particular its extreme top-heaviness), that the existing conference schemes were already losing their substance in many ways for a number of years. They had the air of anachronism in them given that the gravitas of the entire sport had been translated upward into a tiny clique of teams, institutionally supported by the playoff scheme (which will likely be slightly expanded in a 2 mega-conference scenario), with everything else being, de facto, diminished. What we are seeing is the rest of the institutional structures being "gleichgeschaltet" with what the TV giants want, as was the case with the playoff itself.
I am sure there are lots of interesting conversations taking place among the ADs of the remaining Pac12 schools. I am wondering how viable Stanford's approach to athletics remains, over the long term, with a greatly diminished revenue stream from the money sports, among other things, but for the moment the issue is whether anything is salvageable or not -- I am guessing that if it is, it won't be for Stanford and Cal, but for UO and UW.