[Goose]

It looks like Lyshyshank has fallen, and with it, all of Luhansk.

https://www.npr.org/2022/07/03/110962535...bas-russia

I think it is a symbolically important victory for Russia.  Question is what happens next.

BC

Good question. The "answer" at one time seemed to be that once Luhansk Oblast was taken, switch to taking the Donetsk and tidy up the entire Donbas. The current Russian tactical system seems capable of doing that. How long it will take and at what cost is TBD. However, recent successes by Russia may have convinced them that an offensive deeper in the Northwest direction is feasible and that it would possibly cause the Ukraine to fold. They may try to take Izium and then Karkiv from the "back door". This is basically the wide envelopment but from the other direction. Or, being Russian, they may attempt both and reinforce the one that appears to be working. This third choice is IMHO most probable.

Russia will not sit still, but there may be a slight pause to redistribute forces. If they are going Northwest as a primary thrust, there will be much less of a pause because momentum is a consideration there. Russia will fight as hard as possible for at least the next two months. It isn't going to be an easy summer anywhere on the FEBA.

[Goose]

It looks like Lyshyshank has fallen, and with it, all of Luhansk.

https://www.npr.org/2022/07/03/110962535...bas-russia

I think it is a symbolically important victory for Russia.  Question is what happens next.

BC

Good question. The "answer" at one time seemed to be that once Luhansk Oblast was taken, switch to taking the Donetsk and tidy up the entire Donbas. The current Russian tactical system seems capable of doing that. How long it will take and at what cost is TBD. However, recent successes by Russia may have convinced them that an offensive deeper in the Northwest direction is feasible and that it would possibly cause the Ukraine to fold. They may try to take Izium and then Karkiv from the "back door". This is basically the wide envelopment but from the other direction. Or, being Russian, they may attempt both and reinforce the one that appears to be working. This third choice is IMHO most probable.

Russia will not sit still, but there may be a slight pause to redistribute forces. If they are going Northwest as a primary thrust, there will be much less of a pause because momentum is a consideration there. Russia will fight as hard as possible for at least the next two months. It isn't going to be an easy summer anywhere on the FEBA.