[OutsiderFan]

It appears these are key factors at play:

- No current Pac member after USCLA will get more money in the Big XII than in the Pac, and might get less, so it is looking like the Big XII was trying to bite off more than it could chew by stealing 6 Pac teams. 

- The Bay Area TV market (#6; Phoenix #12, Seattle #14) is now the most valuable in the remaining Pac footprint, and helps all the other schools*

- Adding any other member beyond 10 will dilute the Pac revenue below what it would be staying at 10, assuming equal shares for new members.

- Apparently, the ACC footprint actually has more TV eyeballs to offer than even the Big Ten with USCLA

- A partnership between the ACC and Pac (apparently being discussed) would give it nearly 28 million households compared to the Big Ten's 14M and SEC's 15M**

The Big Ten and SEC make more money from media than their TV markets because they have more fan interest in general, and because (and this is related) these conferences have networks that generate money from cable and satellite carriers by forcing people to pay for them who don't even care about sports (though I think SEC Net is on a DTV sports package only, B1G is on all tiers). So even if the Pac region might be able to compete on a pure TV household basis for Tier 1 rights, the networks create another giant revenue stream it lacks.

It looks like the reality is the remaining Pac-12 schools are better off where they are, and Stanford and Cal become the new USCLA in terms of having the most value in the media rights world. Oh how this must kill Washington and Oregon.

* The market is telling Stanford and Cal they better improve their football and hoops programs if they want to get paid more in the future. There is a lot of revenue upside if they prioritize football more, including making themselves more attractive to the Big Ten.

** USCLA might well have acted prematurely by moving to the Big Ten, because a combined ACC/Pac arrangement would have been way easier on travel, and I don't know how long the network model is going to keep ringing the cash register as more people give up cable and satellite TV.  I'd be surprised if the Pac and ACC weren't looking at some streaming service agreement like Apple TV that might boost the Pac revenue to what it could have been with a DirecTV deal. And unlike the Big Ten or SEC, the Pac/ACC can offer exclusive rights to streaming services for games not on broadcast or cable/satellite like on B1G Network.

Another note. It seems to be accepted fact that ESPN and Fox Sports will not have deals with the same leagues. Fox is married to the Big Ten, and won't be involved with the Pac after USCLA are gone. The ACC is with ESPN, so a partnership with the Pac would get it in bed with ESPN too. That would leave NBC, CBS, and Apple or Amazon as the other players.

Really great post.

I can believe that the B12 would mean lower payouts than the P10 but haven't seen that anywhere.  Do you have a source?

I absolutely believe that there is no member the P10 can add that would increase payout per member, although SDSU might be an investment to get back into SoCal.

I would love to believe that Stanford/cal are more marketable than UO/UW, but I am not sure I do.  A source?

Finally, I am interested that the only schools not mentioned as going to the B12 are Stanford/cal.  And we are clearly attractive and more so than others.  Maybe we are too snooty given the academics of the B12.  But maybe we think we have other options.

The only school that adds to revenue per member for the B10 is ND.  And the B10 clearly wasn't interested in taking less per member to get UO/UW.  But I think Hulk said it best in saying that the B10 Presidents would love to be associated with Stanford and Stanford/cal as well.  I wonder if they would be willing to take less money for that combo?

I can imagine a scenario where their first choice is ND/Stanford but they will do Stanford/cal if not.  There have been leaks about Stanford / B10 discussions.  This might explain why Stanford / cal aren't being courted by the B12.

Just speculating.....

It seems like Stanford/Cal and Oregon/Washington provide the gravity for each to stay in orbit if only around the other.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/johncanzanobft/status/1544735317915119617?cxt=HHwWgsClhculgPAqAAAA[/tweet]

[OutsiderFan]

It appears these are key factors at play:

- No current Pac member after USCLA will get more money in the Big XII than in the Pac, and might get less, so it is looking like the Big XII was trying to bite off more than it could chew by stealing 6 Pac teams. 

- The Bay Area TV market (#6; Phoenix #12, Seattle #14) is now the most valuable in the remaining Pac footprint, and helps all the other schools*

- Adding any other member beyond 10 will dilute the Pac revenue below what it would be staying at 10, assuming equal shares for new members.

- Apparently, the ACC footprint actually has more TV eyeballs to offer than even the Big Ten with USCLA

- A partnership between the ACC and Pac (apparently being discussed) would give it nearly 28 million households compared to the Big Ten's 14M and SEC's 15M**

The Big Ten and SEC make more money from media than their TV markets because they have more fan interest in general, and because (and this is related) these conferences have networks that generate money from cable and satellite carriers by forcing people to pay for them who don't even care about sports (though I think SEC Net is on a DTV sports package only, B1G is on all tiers). So even if the Pac region might be able to compete on a pure TV household basis for Tier 1 rights, the networks create another giant revenue stream it lacks.

It looks like the reality is the remaining Pac-12 schools are better off where they are, and Stanford and Cal become the new USCLA in terms of having the most value in the media rights world. Oh how this must kill Washington and Oregon.

* The market is telling Stanford and Cal they better improve their football and hoops programs if they want to get paid more in the future. There is a lot of revenue upside if they prioritize football more, including making themselves more attractive to the Big Ten.

** USCLA might well have acted prematurely by moving to the Big Ten, because a combined ACC/Pac arrangement would have been way easier on travel, and I don't know how long the network model is going to keep ringing the cash register as more people give up cable and satellite TV.  I'd be surprised if the Pac and ACC weren't looking at some streaming service agreement like Apple TV that might boost the Pac revenue to what it could have been with a DirecTV deal. And unlike the Big Ten or SEC, the Pac/ACC can offer exclusive rights to streaming services for games not on broadcast or cable/satellite like on B1G Network.

Another note. It seems to be accepted fact that ESPN and Fox Sports will not have deals with the same leagues. Fox is married to the Big Ten, and won't be involved with the Pac after USCLA are gone. The ACC is with ESPN, so a partnership with the Pac would get it in bed with ESPN too. That would leave NBC, CBS, and Apple or Amazon as the other players.

Really great post.

I can believe that the B12 would mean lower payouts than the P10 but haven't seen that anywhere.  Do you have a source?

I absolutely believe that there is no member the P10 can add that would increase payout per member, although SDSU might be an investment to get back into SoCal.

I would love to believe that Stanford/cal are more marketable than UO/UW, but I am not sure I do.  A source?

Finally, I am interested that the only schools not mentioned as going to the B12 are Stanford/cal.  And we are clearly attractive and more so than others.  Maybe we are too snooty given the academics of the B12.  But maybe we think we have other options.

The only school that adds to revenue per member for the B10 is ND.  And the B10 clearly wasn't interested in taking less per member to get UO/UW.  But I think Hulk said it best in saying that the B10 Presidents would love to be associated with Stanford and Stanford/cal as well.  I wonder if they would be willing to take less money for that combo?

I can imagine a scenario where their first choice is ND/Stanford but they will do Stanford/cal if not.  There have been leaks about Stanford / B10 discussions.  This might explain why Stanford / cal aren't being courted by the B12.

Just speculating.....

It seems like Stanford/Cal and Oregon/Washington provide the gravity for each to stay in orbit if only around the other.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/johncanzanobft/status/1544735317915119617?cxt=HHwWgsClhculgPAqAAAA[/tweet]