[BigJohn043]

I think BigJohn has a good summary.

To add a few comments ... 

2. Clemson, FSU & maybe Miami are desperate to join the SEC (B1G much less likely) and my sense is the SEC would be interested.  But the more I hear about it the more it seems they are stuck there until 2035.  This is a of immense proportions problem for these schools but there is not much they can do about it and ACC schools are likely off limits for 10 years.

Well, most every school in the ACC/PAC/(not so)Big12 is rather desperate to join the SEC and Big 10. 
Clemson and FSU are the two ACC schools for whom this seems at least a possibility - Clemson moreso. 
Miami is an interesting case. They have some cache, but they haven't won a lot since joining the ACC. Miami is a big city but I don't think the Hurricanes attract as many eyeballs there as the Gators/Seminoles. Miami's attendance has always been only okay. 

3. ND has some of the same issues although it is a bit less clear what exactly their contract says.  But I think many are skeptical that they can really get out of the ACC either and join the B1G.

It's not clear to me how much of Notre Dame's current inaction is due to worry about breaking whatever contract they signed with the ACC versus still trying to hold on to independence in football. That independence really is prized by a log of und folks. Whether it is possible to maintain it or not depends upon how much it costs - and how important it is to them to maximize income. 

4. The B12 would love to expand but they aren't that attractive.  Why would they try to recruit some of the lesser schools in the P10 (UA, ASU, CO & Utah)? 

I think you had a small typo there. Didn't you mean something like, "Why would UA, ASU, CO, Utah want to go to the Big 12?"
I think it's pretty obvious why the Big 12 would want them. 
However, I would also think that they would only go if they think the Pac 10 is about to collapse (with more defections), as it's hard to see the future Big 12 being a better home than the remaining Pac 10. 

And of course the Big 12 will be expanding, back to 12 teams, by adding Cincinnati, Central Florida, Houston, BYU. 

5. The B10 is probably open to further expansion but the only schools that gives them higher payouts per member in ND and they likely aren't or can't move.  Given that U$C/UCLA were willing to go as a duo, why take less money to bring in UW or Stanford - in my mind their two most likely targets.

Oregon vs UW is an interesting case. Oregon has been a better football and basketball team lately and of course has Nike money, but overall UW is a far better and bigger university in a much larger state and a much larger media market. 

Stanford's potential value proposition is a much different beast and much ... softer. Hard to figure out if the appeal is real or not. 

But overall, it's hard to see that the SEC/BIG10 would have any interest at all in other teams outside of about seven schools: Notre Dame, Clemson, FSU, Miami (maybe), UW, Oregon (maybe), Stanford (very maybe). 

6.  But per #2 above, the ACC needs to do something.  The schools are stuck but they need to get ready for 10 years from now.  The best idea I have heard is some form of conference championship game with the P10.  Maybe even do combined basketball and other sports tournaments.  Get ESPN to pony up the money.  Get a clear path to the playoff every year.  The B12 is not the right partner per #4 above.  Maybe even get the P10 to raid the 4 best B12 schools.

Well, they "need to do something" because they don't want to keep bringing in a lot less revenue that the SEC/BIG 10, but there is no point in being too specific about what they want to do in 10+ years. Way too many things will be different by that point. 

Of course, the problem they face is that there isn't much available for them to do. 
A partnership with the Pac 12 might help a little in negotiating a TV contract (I guess particularly for an ACC-PAC championship game), but it won't bring SEC dollars. 
I don't see that bringing anything from the rump Big 12 helps anyone. Hard to even define the top four schools there (Kansas, WVU ... Iowa St, Texas Tech???).  They would seem to offer more dilution that revenue. 
Even for the ACC basketball doesn't offer all that much money, and combining with the Pac 12 would probably dilute their basketball revenue.

Thanks for your thoughtful reply.

First, I live in South Florida and the U is the team of Miami.  Sure, there are UF and FSU fans here.  But UM just typifies everything Miami is: sleezy, garish, flashy, etc.  Miami is the school.

The have been to Rose Bowls, national title games, most of the SEC stadiums and by far the best game I have ever seen was UM - ND a couple of years ago.  UM came in undefeated and fired up.  If you have never been to a Miami game they have a DJ who is in the middle of the student section and plays rap music pretty much the whole game.  That day, the better Miami played and the more turnovers they got the louder the music got and literally the whole stadium was jumping up and down going nuts.  It was amazing.  The beginning of the second half was actually really dead and you could look around the stadium and just see that the fans were exhausted.

Miami fans are very optimistic about Cristobal.  The 2023 class has 8 4 stars and a 5 star signed already.  If they can keep even half of the talent home they can be great.  And don't underestimate how important South Florida recruiting is to the SEC schools and their desire to potentially play down there.

On the B12 my point was that the fact they wanted essentially the bottom tier P10 schools should tell you something about what their media rights are really worth.  Many sport people think they will be the consolidator but I really don't think so.

FWIW, I don't think UO is even an option for the B1G.  Their academics are not good enough and they are in a tiny market.  My guess is that UW is actually a good target for them and cal is probably better than UO.

The ACC doesn't NEED to do anything in the short term.  But in 10 years they are going to bust up if they don't do something.  I agree with you their media rights are probably worth more than the P10, but the two conference combined would be the only option to the B1G/SEC and ESPN needs inventory.  I am not sure it makes sense to add any B12 schools to that mix but my guess is the best list would be: BYU, TCU and after that it is tough.  Maybe KU?  Maybe Baylor.

The value is in killing the B12 and giving ESPN only one option.

[BigJohn043]

I think BigJohn has a good summary.

To add a few comments ... 

2. Clemson, FSU & maybe Miami are desperate to join the SEC (B1G much less likely) and my sense is the SEC would be interested.  But the more I hear about it the more it seems they are stuck there until 2035.  This is a of immense proportions problem for these schools but there is not much they can do about it and ACC schools are likely off limits for 10 years.

Well, most every school in the ACC/PAC/(not so)Big12 is rather desperate to join the SEC and Big 10. 
Clemson and FSU are the two ACC schools for whom this seems at least a possibility - Clemson moreso. 
Miami is an interesting case. They have some cache, but they haven't won a lot since joining the ACC. Miami is a big city but I don't think the Hurricanes attract as many eyeballs there as the Gators/Seminoles. Miami's attendance has always been only okay. 

3. ND has some of the same issues although it is a bit less clear what exactly their contract says.  But I think many are skeptical that they can really get out of the ACC either and join the B1G.

It's not clear to me how much of Notre Dame's current inaction is due to worry about breaking whatever contract they signed with the ACC versus still trying to hold on to independence in football. That independence really is prized by a log of und folks. Whether it is possible to maintain it or not depends upon how much it costs - and how important it is to them to maximize income. 

4. The B12 would love to expand but they aren't that attractive.  Why would they try to recruit some of the lesser schools in the P10 (UA, ASU, CO & Utah)? 

I think you had a small typo there. Didn't you mean something like, "Why would UA, ASU, CO, Utah want to go to the Big 12?"
I think it's pretty obvious why the Big 12 would want them. 
However, I would also think that they would only go if they think the Pac 10 is about to collapse (with more defections), as it's hard to see the future Big 12 being a better home than the remaining Pac 10. 

And of course the Big 12 will be expanding, back to 12 teams, by adding Cincinnati, Central Florida, Houston, BYU. 

5. The B10 is probably open to further expansion but the only schools that gives them higher payouts per member in ND and they likely aren't or can't move.  Given that U$C/UCLA were willing to go as a duo, why take less money to bring in UW or Stanford - in my mind their two most likely targets.

Oregon vs UW is an interesting case. Oregon has been a better football and basketball team lately and of course has Nike money, but overall UW is a far better and bigger university in a much larger state and a much larger media market. 

Stanford's potential value proposition is a much different beast and much ... softer. Hard to figure out if the appeal is real or not. 

But overall, it's hard to see that the SEC/BIG10 would have any interest at all in other teams outside of about seven schools: Notre Dame, Clemson, FSU, Miami (maybe), UW, Oregon (maybe), Stanford (very maybe). 

6.  But per #2 above, the ACC needs to do something.  The schools are stuck but they need to get ready for 10 years from now.  The best idea I have heard is some form of conference championship game with the P10.  Maybe even do combined basketball and other sports tournaments.  Get ESPN to pony up the money.  Get a clear path to the playoff every year.  The B12 is not the right partner per #4 above.  Maybe even get the P10 to raid the 4 best B12 schools.

Well, they "need to do something" because they don't want to keep bringing in a lot less revenue that the SEC/BIG 10, but there is no point in being too specific about what they want to do in 10+ years. Way too many things will be different by that point. 

Of course, the problem they face is that there isn't much available for them to do. 
A partnership with the Pac 12 might help a little in negotiating a TV contract (I guess particularly for an ACC-PAC championship game), but it won't bring SEC dollars. 
I don't see that bringing anything from the rump Big 12 helps anyone. Hard to even define the top four schools there (Kansas, WVU ... Iowa St, Texas Tech???).  They would seem to offer more dilution that revenue. 
Even for the ACC basketball doesn't offer all that much money, and combining with the Pac 12 would probably dilute their basketball revenue.

Thanks for your thoughtful reply.

First, I live in South Florida and the U is the team of Miami.  Sure, there are UF and FSU fans here.  But UM just typifies everything Miami is: sleezy, garish, flashy, etc.  Miami is the school.

The have been to Rose Bowls, national title games, most of the SEC stadiums and by far the best game I have ever seen was UM - ND a couple of years ago.  UM came in undefeated and fired up.  If you have never been to a Miami game they have a DJ who is in the middle of the student section and plays rap music pretty much the whole game.  That day, the better Miami played and the more turnovers they got the louder the music got and literally the whole stadium was jumping up and down going nuts.  It was amazing.  The beginning of the second half was actually really dead and you could look around the stadium and just see that the fans were exhausted.

Miami fans are very optimistic about Cristobal.  The 2023 class has 8 4 stars and a 5 star signed already.  If they can keep even half of the talent home they can be great.  And don't underestimate how important South Florida recruiting is to the SEC schools and their desire to potentially play down there.

On the B12 my point was that the fact they wanted essentially the bottom tier P10 schools should tell you something about what their media rights are really worth.  Many sport people think they will be the consolidator but I really don't think so.

FWIW, I don't think UO is even an option for the B1G.  Their academics are not good enough and they are in a tiny market.  My guess is that UW is actually a good target for them and cal is probably better than UO.

The ACC doesn't NEED to do anything in the short term.  But in 10 years they are going to bust up if they don't do something.  I agree with you their media rights are probably worth more than the P10, but the two conference combined would be the only option to the B1G/SEC and ESPN needs inventory.  I am not sure it makes sense to add any B12 schools to that mix but my guess is the best list would be: BYU, TCU and after that it is tough.  Maybe KU?  Maybe Baylor.

The value is in killing the B12 and giving ESPN only one option.