[OutsiderFan]

If ESPN is the only bidder for Pac-10 TV rights, and the Pac-10 schools are desperate to get whatever they can, ESPN has all the leverage and can low ball the conference with a deal that gives member schools paltry payouts and results in falling further behind other conferences. The Pac-10 needs some way to counter this ESPN leverage, and it seems Cal and Stanford could provide it.

The Bay Area market is the most valuable in the Pac-10 footprint and will account for the most money in any TV deal. There have been estimates that Stanford's media rights are worth about $45M/yr, and Cal's are probably similar. This means Cal and Stanford have a lot of gravity in the negotiations with ESPN.

But Cal and Stanford are also two schools that don't put the football cart before the school horse. This means both schools could credibly threaten to drop football if ESPN low balls the Pac-10, and therefore create an "ESPN needs Cal and Stanford more than Cal and Stanford need ESPN's money" kind of dynamic. Maybe not as believable for Cal as Stanford, but still believable.

This move would force Arizona, ASU, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Utah to the Big 12 which ESPN may not have, locking ESPN out of west coast night games it covets.

Now, ESPN could balk and force the other 6 schools to the Big 12, but will ESPN take that risk of losing out on west coast night games? So the Pac-10 negotiators could really play up Cal and Stanford dropping out of D1 football as more than a threat, and have some real leverage with ESPN.

All negotiations between two parties are games of chicken, and no deal is worth doing if one party feels they are getting screwed. Cal and Stanford to me have a credible ability to threaten dropping football if the Pac-10 is lowballed by ESPN, and the Bay Area TV market is pretty much the only leverage the Pac-10 will have in negotiations.

Of course, I believe the best move for Cal and Stanford is to join the Big Ten, so they can be negotiating with the Big Ten, allowing the Pac-10 to use their rights as leverage in negotiations with ESPN, or could actually drop football if ESPN doesn't pay enough or the Big Ten says no.

And all this against the backdrop of the UC Board of Regents meeting on Thursday to discuss UCLA moving to the Big Ten. Who knows what happens there, but possible outcomes are: nothing to UCLA being blocked from going to the Big Ten, and lots in between, like ruling Cal and UCLA must be in same conference.

[OutsiderFan]

If ESPN is the only bidder for Pac-10 TV rights, and the Pac-10 schools are desperate to get whatever they can, ESPN has all the leverage and can low ball the conference with a deal that gives member schools paltry payouts and results in falling further behind other conferences. The Pac-10 needs some way to counter this ESPN leverage, and it seems Cal and Stanford could provide it.

The Bay Area market is the most valuable in the Pac-10 footprint and will account for the most money in any TV deal. There have been estimates that Stanford's media rights are worth about $45M/yr, and Cal's are probably similar. This means Cal and Stanford have a lot of gravity in the negotiations with ESPN.

But Cal and Stanford are also two schools that don't put the football cart before the school horse. This means both schools could credibly threaten to drop football if ESPN low balls the Pac-10, and therefore create an "ESPN needs Cal and Stanford more than Cal and Stanford need ESPN's money" kind of dynamic. Maybe not as believable for Cal as Stanford, but still believable.

This move would force Arizona, ASU, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, and Utah to the Big 12 which ESPN may not have, locking ESPN out of west coast night games it covets.

Now, ESPN could balk and force the other 6 schools to the Big 12, but will ESPN take that risk of losing out on west coast night games? So the Pac-10 negotiators could really play up Cal and Stanford dropping out of D1 football as more than a threat, and have some real leverage with ESPN.

All negotiations between two parties are games of chicken, and no deal is worth doing if one party feels they are getting screwed. Cal and Stanford to me have a credible ability to threaten dropping football if the Pac-10 is lowballed by ESPN, and the Bay Area TV market is pretty much the only leverage the Pac-10 will have in negotiations.

Of course, I believe the best move for Cal and Stanford is to join the Big Ten, so they can be negotiating with the Big Ten, allowing the Pac-10 to use their rights as leverage in negotiations with ESPN, or could actually drop football if ESPN doesn't pay enough or the Big Ten says no.

And all this against the backdrop of the UC Board of Regents meeting on Thursday to discuss UCLA moving to the Big Ten. Who knows what happens there, but possible outcomes are: nothing to UCLA being blocked from going to the Big Ten, and lots in between, like ruling Cal and UCLA must be in same conference.