[Goose]

Interesting… could the operation to liberate Kherson have been a feint?

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/08/...74f24220a2

Ever since announcing it, Russia has diverted troops to the South to protect Kherson, reducing the pressure on Ukrainian troops in the East and even allowing the Ukrainians to recapture a little territory in the Donbas.

And of course, if the Russian casualty figures are even approximately correct, half their original force will have been killed or wounded, spreading them very thin.

BC

It probably isn't a feint. Recapturing the Kherson area and eventually the entire Oblast is a major "must do" for Ukraine. However, the fact it is forcing the Russians to react is all by itself a good thing. It gives them a Hobson's choice and attacks their weakness in troop strength. Either way, it is strategically good for Ukraine. Obviously if the offensive succeeds, that is best. If it doesn't fully succeed but forces the Russians to expose the Donbas it is still a strategic success.

Kherson has the advantage that the GLOCs are not as good and plentiful as in the Donbas. The population is also "friendlier" and cutting off the GLOC down the coast and  the water supply to Crimea is a big strategic threat. It also completely cuts the GLOC of the Russian troops trying to advance towards Odessa. They would be "surrounded" with their backs to the Black Sea. Sounds worse than it is since Russia controls the Black sea, but still not good. Russia would be hard put to ignore it.

Giving up "just" the city of Kherson would be bad but not fatal. Having Ukraine in strength on the south bank would be a much bigger problem. For a while it looked to me like Russia wasn't going to react but it was just the slow nervous system it appears. They did react. If Ukraine now continues to move south east successfully, Russia is in big trouble.

One thing to consider is that the lower Dnieper River will freeze in winter. Shades of Stalingrad. This makes the bridges less important as one can generally drive across the ice. Just don't do so in anything "too heavy". Of course, it also means the Ukrainians can go the other way, and since so far they are the "lighter" force it might help them more than Russia.

[Goose]

Interesting… could the operation to liberate Kherson have been a feint?

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/08/...74f24220a2

Ever since announcing it, Russia has diverted troops to the South to protect Kherson, reducing the pressure on Ukrainian troops in the East and even allowing the Ukrainians to recapture a little territory in the Donbas.

And of course, if the Russian casualty figures are even approximately correct, half their original force will have been killed or wounded, spreading them very thin.

BC

It probably isn't a feint. Recapturing the Kherson area and eventually the entire Oblast is a major "must do" for Ukraine. However, the fact it is forcing the Russians to react is all by itself a good thing. It gives them a Hobson's choice and attacks their weakness in troop strength. Either way, it is strategically good for Ukraine. Obviously if the offensive succeeds, that is best. If it doesn't fully succeed but forces the Russians to expose the Donbas it is still a strategic success.

Kherson has the advantage that the GLOCs are not as good and plentiful as in the Donbas. The population is also "friendlier" and cutting off the GLOC down the coast and  the water supply to Crimea is a big strategic threat. It also completely cuts the GLOC of the Russian troops trying to advance towards Odessa. They would be "surrounded" with their backs to the Black Sea. Sounds worse than it is since Russia controls the Black sea, but still not good. Russia would be hard put to ignore it.

Giving up "just" the city of Kherson would be bad but not fatal. Having Ukraine in strength on the south bank would be a much bigger problem. For a while it looked to me like Russia wasn't going to react but it was just the slow nervous system it appears. They did react. If Ukraine now continues to move south east successfully, Russia is in big trouble.

One thing to consider is that the lower Dnieper River will freeze in winter. Shades of Stalingrad. This makes the bridges less important as one can generally drive across the ice. Just don't do so in anything "too heavy". Of course, it also means the Ukrainians can go the other way, and since so far they are the "lighter" force it might help them more than Russia.