[Goose]

I'd assume the return of TB2 offensive strikes is a direct effect of HARM missiles clearing some gaps in the AA defenses, but I'm sure Goose would have a better idea. Would love to see more of these, any successful TB2 strike likely saves Ukrainian lives.

Inferences one could make from the two new TB2 vids today are that 1) Russian air defense in the area is porous, possibly from HARMs and 2) TB2s may be out of high priority targets in the area. If they aren't blowing up command centers, air defense, and ammo dumps, they may have already blown all that stuff up.

And that sets the stage for combined arms offensive operations.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/statu...L_gj4WAVVQ

Russian air defense has not lived up to expectations in Ukraine from day 1. All along they have not really had an "IAD" because they have not used their target acquisition radars to detect the targets and assign specific batteries to engage them. The Buk family, S-300 and S-400 systems have limited organic search capability. While the newer systems are "better", some have likened their target acquisition performance to "watching a football game through a soda straw". As discussed previously, Russia also has not utilized their Mainstay aircraft to acquire targets for their IAD.

Why Russia has not followed their own doctrine is anybodies guess, but it has really impacted their performance. They are better than this. There is no obvious reason I am aware of for their actions. Possible it is simply that their communications systems will not support it. However, they do it in Syria. In Syria, it is on a much smaller scale so less stress on communications. In any case, it results in a very degraded system performance.

Additionally, TB2s are hard to shoot down. They are not very big radar targets. While the Russians have often claimed their systems were effective against drones, the question of which drones and how effective has never really been answered. The TB2 has a 12 m wingspan. The MQ-4C has a 40 m wingspan. Very different beasts. The limited acquisition capability of the missile batteries means in many cases the TB2s simply won't be detected at all. In other cases they will be detected but in such "bad geometries" that it isn't worth engaging. Even if you have a feasible solution a SARAH missile will often not guide on a small target. If the Russians are equipped with and choose to launch an active seeker missile the "basket" presented by the TB2 may be too small and the missile "goes stupid". This is especially true if the target is maneuvering. All kinds of things can go wrong that the missile guys can't control. You do everything right and still miss. Ukraine has figured this out and been able operate the TB2 (and to some extent combat aircraft) successfully.

I of course can't know the "actual" HARM contribution to the current success. However, it's existence does two things. First and least important it has hit and destroyed some Russian radars and some Russian air defense vehicles/sites. This is good, but limited in scope. IMHO the more important effect is that the Russian radar operators are going to be increasingly reluctant to turn on their radars and search for targets. They may eat a HARM without ever knowing it is there. Even worse, if they actually engage a target they have to leave their radar operating (in most cases) until it hits or clearly misses. Finding the target is hard enough. Sitting there and waiting for a result is worse. You are screaming "Here I am. Hit me". If you then detect a constant bearing object going pretty fast, what do you do? This is a "big deal" and does affect the air defense significantly. You bosses generally don't know if your radar is actually radiating. If it isn't, maybe nobody will notice you exist.

As far as the target selection, I wouldn't necessarily conclude that the drones are shooting at secondary targets. It might be that they are now more focused on eliminating immediate threats to advancing units because previously there were no advancing units. TB2s have a relatively small payload. They carry up to 4 missiles weighing 37.5 kg each. Enough to reliably kill a couple of armored vehicles, but not more. Attacking a headquarters or a large concentration of material is more a HIMARS thing because it can bring in lots of explosive. The main thing is that the TB2s are there and still flying. They are probably more valuable as reconnaissance drones than attack drones. Of course, targets of opportunity do exist.

[Goose]

I'd assume the return of TB2 offensive strikes is a direct effect of HARM missiles clearing some gaps in the AA defenses, but I'm sure Goose would have a better idea. Would love to see more of these, any successful TB2 strike likely saves Ukrainian lives.

Inferences one could make from the two new TB2 vids today are that 1) Russian air defense in the area is porous, possibly from HARMs and 2) TB2s may be out of high priority targets in the area. If they aren't blowing up command centers, air defense, and ammo dumps, they may have already blown all that stuff up.

And that sets the stage for combined arms offensive operations.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/statu...L_gj4WAVVQ

Russian air defense has not lived up to expectations in Ukraine from day 1. All along they have not really had an "IAD" because they have not used their target acquisition radars to detect the targets and assign specific batteries to engage them. The Buk family, S-300 and S-400 systems have limited organic search capability. While the newer systems are "better", some have likened their target acquisition performance to "watching a football game through a soda straw". As discussed previously, Russia also has not utilized their Mainstay aircraft to acquire targets for their IAD.

Why Russia has not followed their own doctrine is anybodies guess, but it has really impacted their performance. They are better than this. There is no obvious reason I am aware of for their actions. Possible it is simply that their communications systems will not support it. However, they do it in Syria. In Syria, it is on a much smaller scale so less stress on communications. In any case, it results in a very degraded system performance.

Additionally, TB2s are hard to shoot down. They are not very big radar targets. While the Russians have often claimed their systems were effective against drones, the question of which drones and how effective has never really been answered. The TB2 has a 12 m wingspan. The MQ-4C has a 40 m wingspan. Very different beasts. The limited acquisition capability of the missile batteries means in many cases the TB2s simply won't be detected at all. In other cases they will be detected but in such "bad geometries" that it isn't worth engaging. Even if you have a feasible solution a SARAH missile will often not guide on a small target. If the Russians are equipped with and choose to launch an active seeker missile the "basket" presented by the TB2 may be too small and the missile "goes stupid". This is especially true if the target is maneuvering. All kinds of things can go wrong that the missile guys can't control. You do everything right and still miss. Ukraine has figured this out and been able operate the TB2 (and to some extent combat aircraft) successfully.

I of course can't know the "actual" HARM contribution to the current success. However, it's existence does two things. First and least important it has hit and destroyed some Russian radars and some Russian air defense vehicles/sites. This is good, but limited in scope. IMHO the more important effect is that the Russian radar operators are going to be increasingly reluctant to turn on their radars and search for targets. They may eat a HARM without ever knowing it is there. Even worse, if they actually engage a target they have to leave their radar operating (in most cases) until it hits or clearly misses. Finding the target is hard enough. Sitting there and waiting for a result is worse. You are screaming "Here I am. Hit me". If you then detect a constant bearing object going pretty fast, what do you do? This is a "big deal" and does affect the air defense significantly. You bosses generally don't know if your radar is actually radiating. If it isn't, maybe nobody will notice you exist.

As far as the target selection, I wouldn't necessarily conclude that the drones are shooting at secondary targets. It might be that they are now more focused on eliminating immediate threats to advancing units because previously there were no advancing units. TB2s have a relatively small payload. They carry up to 4 missiles weighing 37.5 kg each. Enough to reliably kill a couple of armored vehicles, but not more. Attacking a headquarters or a large concentration of material is more a HIMARS thing because it can bring in lots of explosive. The main thing is that the TB2s are there and still flying. They are probably more valuable as reconnaissance drones than attack drones. Of course, targets of opportunity do exist.