[Goose]

It all depends on being able to enforce the restrictions on insurance and preventing the Russians from cheating the sanctions.

If the restrictions can’t be enforced over insurance, the scheme will collapse for the same reason any cartel will collapse.  If the price cap is set at $50, there are plenty of willing buyers without scruples (India, China) who will be happy to buy it for $55.  Russian oil will continue to sell at a discount, but probably at a substantially higher price than the cap.

How, where that’s how evading sanctions comes to pass.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articl...#xj4y7vzkg

Chinese imports of Malaysian crude oil have surged to almost 800,000 barrels a day — more than what the Southeast Asian nation actually produces. The waters of Malaysia are a hot spot for ship-to-ship transfers, allowing unscrupulous traders to mix crude from other origins and rebrand it as Malaysian. The actual origin likely is a mix of market pariah states Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

BC

No scheme to cap prices is going to absolutely work. Market forces are basically irresistible. You can dam them up for a while, but any such dam will leak and eventually burst. The good news is that this dam doesn't have to last forever. One good side effect could be the (very belated) realization that these ship-to-ship transfers of various "contraband" have been a big problem for a long time. The enforcement of export regulations is often undermined that way, as well as allowing "bogus" products to enter the legitimate trade with false paperwork. The US and other countries have the enforcement ability to greatly restrict these activities but it requires the legal authority from the ships country of registry. We have not done nearly enough networking/arm twisting to force such countries to realize their continued enabling of illicit trade will cost them more than it is worth. Many of these countries are actually friendly to western trade, they just have a side business of registering any ship that wants it. If they will allow "reasonable" stopping of ships to be searched for fraudulent cargo based upon reasonable evidence, we have no problem with such registration policies.

[Goose]

It all depends on being able to enforce the restrictions on insurance and preventing the Russians from cheating the sanctions.

If the restrictions can’t be enforced over insurance, the scheme will collapse for the same reason any cartel will collapse.  If the price cap is set at $50, there are plenty of willing buyers without scruples (India, China) who will be happy to buy it for $55.  Russian oil will continue to sell at a discount, but probably at a substantially higher price than the cap.

How, where that’s how evading sanctions comes to pass.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articl...#xj4y7vzkg

Chinese imports of Malaysian crude oil have surged to almost 800,000 barrels a day — more than what the Southeast Asian nation actually produces. The waters of Malaysia are a hot spot for ship-to-ship transfers, allowing unscrupulous traders to mix crude from other origins and rebrand it as Malaysian. The actual origin likely is a mix of market pariah states Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

BC

No scheme to cap prices is going to absolutely work. Market forces are basically irresistible. You can dam them up for a while, but any such dam will leak and eventually burst. The good news is that this dam doesn't have to last forever. One good side effect could be the (very belated) realization that these ship-to-ship transfers of various "contraband" have been a big problem for a long time. The enforcement of export regulations is often undermined that way, as well as allowing "bogus" products to enter the legitimate trade with false paperwork. The US and other countries have the enforcement ability to greatly restrict these activities but it requires the legal authority from the ships country of registry. We have not done nearly enough networking/arm twisting to force such countries to realize their continued enabling of illicit trade will cost them more than it is worth. Many of these countries are actually friendly to western trade, they just have a side business of registering any ship that wants it. If they will allow "reasonable" stopping of ships to be searched for fraudulent cargo based upon reasonable evidence, we have no problem with such registration policies.