[Goose]

They may actually be moving quicker. Most of the FIRMS satellite fire detection is showing fires on the Russian side of the lines along large stretches in Kherson. I've seen many videos of different overrun Russian positions. They seem to be moving quickest from the north along the Dnipro. If they can continue their advance there they will have a good chunk of the Russian position surrounded by three sides and a shrinking frontage on the river that they could potentially ferry across.

Ukrainian leadership is doing a good job managing expectations but I think the Kherson offensive is very much going according to plan for Ukraine.

Here's a pretty neat video from Kherson of Ukrainian infantry supported by Turkish Kirpi IFVs and a tank, which engages and turret pops a Russian IFV.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/156...H4QH4MM62g

Ukrainian fighting from the beginning has been a matter of small unit engagements, not large army or corps size engagements, and I think we are seeing that in Kherson as well. Ukraine is sending their most veteran SOF type troops and providing a comparatively high amount of long range fire support to enable lots of hit and run raids against rattled and undersupplied Russian troops and forcing them to retreat. Does Russia have a better fortified second line and will their troops defend it in the weeks ahead will determine if Kherson city falls before winter.

Looking quite good. The guys operating here look more like regular army, as most SOF type of troops don't use tanks or IFVs, but for sure there are Ukrainian SOF guys even further forward making sure those Russians remain rattled and under supplied.

While Kherson city is politically the most important objective in the area, the dam and associated highway crossing is arguably the more strategic objective. Possessing that cuts off supplies to all the Russian troops north and west of that point, which is a considerable number. It also threatens the water supply to Crimea. There is lots of opportunity for Ukraine in that direction too. If they can take Kakhovka dam, Russia is well and truly screwed even if the keep Kherson. Ideally Ukraine would hold both ends of the dam, but even one end cuts the road. This obviously means Russian troops cannot retreat that way nor can Kherson be supplied that way.

I don't think Russia has a better fortified defensive line near Kherson, but the retreating forces will create a concentration of combat power. That can make things harder for Ukraine. OTOH, it means these troops need to be "fed and led", which Russia hasn't shown the ability to do reliably. It may depend on 1) whether Russia intends to hold Kherson and 2) whether the troops they have to do it are steady enough to do so. The weird thing about this for me is that there are lots of Russian troops in the direction of Mykolaiv that rely on supply via Kherson. I don't see any reports of those troops evacuating. That would tend to make one believe Russia is very confident it can hold Kherson and keep supplies moving on the M14 and associated railways. We already know there are big problems on the railways and it isn't obvious the M14 can be kept open even if Kherson doesn't actually fall. If it were me, I would be "concerned".

[Goose]

They may actually be moving quicker. Most of the FIRMS satellite fire detection is showing fires on the Russian side of the lines along large stretches in Kherson. I've seen many videos of different overrun Russian positions. They seem to be moving quickest from the north along the Dnipro. If they can continue their advance there they will have a good chunk of the Russian position surrounded by three sides and a shrinking frontage on the river that they could potentially ferry across.

Ukrainian leadership is doing a good job managing expectations but I think the Kherson offensive is very much going according to plan for Ukraine.

Here's a pretty neat video from Kherson of Ukrainian infantry supported by Turkish Kirpi IFVs and a tank, which engages and turret pops a Russian IFV.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/156...H4QH4MM62g

Ukrainian fighting from the beginning has been a matter of small unit engagements, not large army or corps size engagements, and I think we are seeing that in Kherson as well. Ukraine is sending their most veteran SOF type troops and providing a comparatively high amount of long range fire support to enable lots of hit and run raids against rattled and undersupplied Russian troops and forcing them to retreat. Does Russia have a better fortified second line and will their troops defend it in the weeks ahead will determine if Kherson city falls before winter.

Looking quite good. The guys operating here look more like regular army, as most SOF type of troops don't use tanks or IFVs, but for sure there are Ukrainian SOF guys even further forward making sure those Russians remain rattled and under supplied.

While Kherson city is politically the most important objective in the area, the dam and associated highway crossing is arguably the more strategic objective. Possessing that cuts off supplies to all the Russian troops north and west of that point, which is a considerable number. It also threatens the water supply to Crimea. There is lots of opportunity for Ukraine in that direction too. If they can take Kakhovka dam, Russia is well and truly screwed even if the keep Kherson. Ideally Ukraine would hold both ends of the dam, but even one end cuts the road. This obviously means Russian troops cannot retreat that way nor can Kherson be supplied that way.

I don't think Russia has a better fortified defensive line near Kherson, but the retreating forces will create a concentration of combat power. That can make things harder for Ukraine. OTOH, it means these troops need to be "fed and led", which Russia hasn't shown the ability to do reliably. It may depend on 1) whether Russia intends to hold Kherson and 2) whether the troops they have to do it are steady enough to do so. The weird thing about this for me is that there are lots of Russian troops in the direction of Mykolaiv that rely on supply via Kherson. I don't see any reports of those troops evacuating. That would tend to make one believe Russia is very confident it can hold Kherson and keep supplies moving on the M14 and associated railways. We already know there are big problems on the railways and it isn't obvious the M14 can be kept open even if Kherson doesn't actually fall. If it were me, I would be "concerned".