[Goose]

Too bad for Russia, Ukraine gets a say. The Kherson annexation vote has already been postponed indefinitely by their offensive there.

And they're doing a good "Guderian in 1940 France" impression with their Kharkiv offensive. 

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/statu...q33PZ7d9Ng

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/statu...q33PZ7d9Ng

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/statu...q33PZ7d9Ng

The concern is that Ukraine might be doing what Russia is allowing them to do. The list of armies that got themselves in trouble by over-extending themselves against Russia is so long there is no point in enumerating it. This is not to say that I believe that is what is happening here, but rather that caution is advisable. I would feel a lot better about this if I knew Ukraine had an objective. If they intend to surround Izyum, great. If they intend to cut all the north-south GLOCS, great. Exploiting a void in the enemies defenses is a good idea only if you have an "end game" for it. Earlier in the war Ukraine showed great ability to defend while avoiding encirclement. Hopefully they fully remember how to to that if necessary.

Russia will be lucky to end the war holding onto Crimea.

Ukraine has been very upfront that they intend to get all their territory back. I actually think they have a potentially much easier fight for Crimea than they do in the Donbas. Crimea is easier to isolate from Russia. Donbas is almost impossible. However, if Russia finally realizes this war is idiotic Ukraine may not have to fight for either. Hope springs eternal.

[Goose]

Too bad for Russia, Ukraine gets a say. The Kherson annexation vote has already been postponed indefinitely by their offensive there.

And they're doing a good "Guderian in 1940 France" impression with their Kharkiv offensive. 

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/statu...q33PZ7d9Ng

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/statu...q33PZ7d9Ng

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/statu...q33PZ7d9Ng

The concern is that Ukraine might be doing what Russia is allowing them to do. The list of armies that got themselves in trouble by over-extending themselves against Russia is so long there is no point in enumerating it. This is not to say that I believe that is what is happening here, but rather that caution is advisable. I would feel a lot better about this if I knew Ukraine had an objective. If they intend to surround Izyum, great. If they intend to cut all the north-south GLOCS, great. Exploiting a void in the enemies defenses is a good idea only if you have an "end game" for it. Earlier in the war Ukraine showed great ability to defend while avoiding encirclement. Hopefully they fully remember how to to that if necessary.

Russia will be lucky to end the war holding onto Crimea.

Ukraine has been very upfront that they intend to get all their territory back. I actually think they have a potentially much easier fight for Crimea than they do in the Donbas. Crimea is easier to isolate from Russia. Donbas is almost impossible. However, if Russia finally realizes this war is idiotic Ukraine may not have to fight for either. Hope springs eternal.