[dabigv13]

I think it's a close to zero percent possibility Russia, of the very big brain lighting-attack-to-take-Kiev-with-a-bunch-of-paratroopers school of strategic planning, has somehow lured Ukraine into an ill advised attack to stretch their supply lines. The much much much likelier reality is that Ukraine talked up their Kherson offensive so much that Russia reinforced there, while leaving other fronts poorly defended, and Ukraine is capitalizing on it. Ukraine has interior lines and they are taking good advantage of that

If Russia was going to trap Ukraine in some salient they would need to have strong troops at the edges of the salient to collapse inwards. Instead, the narrow break has only widened.

Ukraine achieved a breakthrough and had follow on troops ready. This was a very well planned Ukrainian offensive, and they would be pretty foolish to announce it or their objectives ahead of time.

[dabigv13]

I think it's a close to zero percent possibility Russia, of the very big brain lighting-attack-to-take-Kiev-with-a-bunch-of-paratroopers school of strategic planning, has somehow lured Ukraine into an ill advised attack to stretch their supply lines. The much much much likelier reality is that Ukraine talked up their Kherson offensive so much that Russia reinforced there, while leaving other fronts poorly defended, and Ukraine is capitalizing on it. Ukraine has interior lines and they are taking good advantage of that

If Russia was going to trap Ukraine in some salient they would need to have strong troops at the edges of the salient to collapse inwards. Instead, the narrow break has only widened.

Ukraine achieved a breakthrough and had follow on troops ready. This was a very well planned Ukrainian offensive, and they would be pretty foolish to announce it or their objectives ahead of time.