[Goose]

The Russians are having difficulties retreating across even small rivers. In both the Kherson offensive and the Kharkiv offensive, if Ukrainian advances continue, large groups of Russian forces and equipment will be trapped by large rivers, the Dnieper in Kherson and the Oskil in Kharkiv. 

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/156...sHjLRVtVtw

Ukraine has already knocked out all the bridges over the Dineper. I don't know as much about the bridge situation on the Oskil though on a map it looks like there are only really two south of Kupyansk. They should be within range of GMLRS and Ukraine has launchers in the area.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/156...sHjLRVtVtw

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/15679...sHjLRVtVtw

And with Russians likely needing to retreat across two different rivers across the country at the same time, their already shot up engineering and bridging units will be even more stretched. Could be many prisoners, and lots more donated gear.

Not just farmland is being freed either. Over twenty villages and towns I believe in past couple days.

Ukraine is doing a great job and I think it is becoming clear what their immediate objectives are. They may already be on them as the reporting has trouble keeping up with the advance. If Ukraine can occupy and hold Kupiansk and/or Kivsharivka, Izyum is untenable. The road and railroad from both the east and the north run through those towns.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ThicMozzarella/status/1567951124896043009/photo/1[/tweet]
From the above one can see Ukraine is following the railroad to it's junction. The advance shown here is a salient, which is very concerning.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ThicMozzarella/status/1567998913298460674/photo/1[/tweet]
says the salient is wider, but I am not sure which one (if either) is correct. This action could destabilize the entire Izyum area, as without rail service there is no food, no ammunition, and no quick reinforcement.

That said, I am not so sure how many Russians we are going to see KIA or POWs. It looks like Ukraine punched through the first line of defense and then hit air. Indeed it may be much like France in 1940. That is why I earlier said we should look at the POW count before deciding how seriously the Russians will be damaged. How much is there to be withdrawn from Izyum? Maybe not much, but whatever it is it should be either moving to protect the GLOCS or using them to get out. It may be too late already as Ukraine undoubtedly has the railroad and highway within artillery range right now, at a minimum.

The real head-scratcher about this whole situation is that, as you point out, Russia has some significant (at least in Kherson) numbers of troops with their backs to a river, the supply lines under artillery fire (at a minimum), and significant Ukrainian forces tightening the Russian perimeter daily. Supposedly there are shortages of everything, including drinking water. Yet Russia seems to be just sitting there. They aren't retreating, they aren't madly shoring up their defenses, they aren't being reinforced. They just sit there as if there is no command and control and no concern about the deteriorating situation. Russia may be "just fine" and hold on into the winter, but I for one wouldn't bet on that. It seems they are though.

Talk about morale advantage. Imagine you're a Ukrainian soldier on a BTR rolling through a liberated village like this on your way to go kill more Russians.

As BC said, not to be a downer but what I would hope to see is a Ukrainian E5 screaming at them to "Get back in your F****** vehicle and act like soldiers". The habit of riding on the outside of their APCs is well entrenched in the Russian military and most armies using Soviet designed equipment. It is very uncomfortable to ride in. It is difficult to fight from inside of it when necessary. It is also hard to get out of. However, if you are fighting an enemy that has lots of 155/152 mm artillery, you can be hit by H&I fire quite a distance from the front line. No warning, it just happens. Worse still, in an area your enemy just vacated, there may be stay-behinds that can actually target you. It always makes sense to remain inside the vehicle as long as possible. A direct hit kills you either way, but if you are riding on top close is absolutely devastating. You might as well be in an open truck.

[Goose]

The Russians are having difficulties retreating across even small rivers. In both the Kherson offensive and the Kharkiv offensive, if Ukrainian advances continue, large groups of Russian forces and equipment will be trapped by large rivers, the Dnieper in Kherson and the Oskil in Kharkiv. 

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/156...sHjLRVtVtw

Ukraine has already knocked out all the bridges over the Dineper. I don't know as much about the bridge situation on the Oskil though on a map it looks like there are only really two south of Kupyansk. They should be within range of GMLRS and Ukraine has launchers in the area.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/156...sHjLRVtVtw

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/15679...sHjLRVtVtw

And with Russians likely needing to retreat across two different rivers across the country at the same time, their already shot up engineering and bridging units will be even more stretched. Could be many prisoners, and lots more donated gear.

Not just farmland is being freed either. Over twenty villages and towns I believe in past couple days.

Ukraine is doing a great job and I think it is becoming clear what their immediate objectives are. They may already be on them as the reporting has trouble keeping up with the advance. If Ukraine can occupy and hold Kupiansk and/or Kivsharivka, Izyum is untenable. The road and railroad from both the east and the north run through those towns.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ThicMozzarella/status/1567951124896043009/photo/1[/tweet]
From the above one can see Ukraine is following the railroad to it's junction. The advance shown here is a salient, which is very concerning.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ThicMozzarella/status/1567998913298460674/photo/1[/tweet]
says the salient is wider, but I am not sure which one (if either) is correct. This action could destabilize the entire Izyum area, as without rail service there is no food, no ammunition, and no quick reinforcement.

That said, I am not so sure how many Russians we are going to see KIA or POWs. It looks like Ukraine punched through the first line of defense and then hit air. Indeed it may be much like France in 1940. That is why I earlier said we should look at the POW count before deciding how seriously the Russians will be damaged. How much is there to be withdrawn from Izyum? Maybe not much, but whatever it is it should be either moving to protect the GLOCS or using them to get out. It may be too late already as Ukraine undoubtedly has the railroad and highway within artillery range right now, at a minimum.

The real head-scratcher about this whole situation is that, as you point out, Russia has some significant (at least in Kherson) numbers of troops with their backs to a river, the supply lines under artillery fire (at a minimum), and significant Ukrainian forces tightening the Russian perimeter daily. Supposedly there are shortages of everything, including drinking water. Yet Russia seems to be just sitting there. They aren't retreating, they aren't madly shoring up their defenses, they aren't being reinforced. They just sit there as if there is no command and control and no concern about the deteriorating situation. Russia may be "just fine" and hold on into the winter, but I for one wouldn't bet on that. It seems they are though.

Talk about morale advantage. Imagine you're a Ukrainian soldier on a BTR rolling through a liberated village like this on your way to go kill more Russians.

As BC said, not to be a downer but what I would hope to see is a Ukrainian E5 screaming at them to "Get back in your F****** vehicle and act like soldiers". The habit of riding on the outside of their APCs is well entrenched in the Russian military and most armies using Soviet designed equipment. It is very uncomfortable to ride in. It is difficult to fight from inside of it when necessary. It is also hard to get out of. However, if you are fighting an enemy that has lots of 155/152 mm artillery, you can be hit by H&I fire quite a distance from the front line. No warning, it just happens. Worse still, in an area your enemy just vacated, there may be stay-behinds that can actually target you. It always makes sense to remain inside the vehicle as long as possible. A direct hit kills you either way, but if you are riding on top close is absolutely devastating. You might as well be in an open truck.