[Goose]

I for one hope there isn't "heavy fighting" going on in the urban areas of Isyum. As I said yesterday, if Ukraine can occupy and hold Kupiansk and/or Kivsharivka, Izyum is untenable. There are NO possible supply lines there except through Kupiansk and Kivsharivka. It is not worth the casualties to take a city that will fall on its on within days. There is no way out for the "garrison", whatever remains of it. The idea Ukraine is  preparing for further advances is more to my liking FWIW.

The question of what defense Russia had in the area Ukraine has recently occupied is a good one. We know it wasn't very substantial because we don't see hordes of bodies everywhere. I am pretty sure Ukraine had a very good idea of the Russian ORBAT in that area before this started. They knew which and how many BTGs were located where. I OTOH  don't know that. All I can judge by is the KIA and EPOW that Ukraine claims. The KIA number is more of a guess, but they will know how many people they captured. If it is in the hundreds, Russia did indeed leave all this area virtually undefended. If it breaks into a thousand or more, it becomes progressively more impressive.

Will the Kharkiv offensive be the shove that collapses Russia's whole creaking "special operation"?

I think not by itself. That said, this Kharkiv offensive seems to be getting wider every day, so it may become even more strategically important. Even as is, it puts more pressure on Russia in the Donbas. The northern flank might become open. While this isn't a game changer by itself, it requires troops that Russia does not have ATM. If Ukraine can start making this kind pf rapid progress in Kherson Oblast, the combination of the two would IMHO bring down Putin. The potential for complete defeat in the short term can't be concealed from the public. Too many rank-and-file would know about it.

[Goose]

I for one hope there isn't "heavy fighting" going on in the urban areas of Isyum. As I said yesterday, if Ukraine can occupy and hold Kupiansk and/or Kivsharivka, Izyum is untenable. There are NO possible supply lines there except through Kupiansk and Kivsharivka. It is not worth the casualties to take a city that will fall on its on within days. There is no way out for the "garrison", whatever remains of it. The idea Ukraine is  preparing for further advances is more to my liking FWIW.

The question of what defense Russia had in the area Ukraine has recently occupied is a good one. We know it wasn't very substantial because we don't see hordes of bodies everywhere. I am pretty sure Ukraine had a very good idea of the Russian ORBAT in that area before this started. They knew which and how many BTGs were located where. I OTOH  don't know that. All I can judge by is the KIA and EPOW that Ukraine claims. The KIA number is more of a guess, but they will know how many people they captured. If it is in the hundreds, Russia did indeed leave all this area virtually undefended. If it breaks into a thousand or more, it becomes progressively more impressive.

Will the Kharkiv offensive be the shove that collapses Russia's whole creaking "special operation"?

I think not by itself. That said, this Kharkiv offensive seems to be getting wider every day, so it may become even more strategically important. Even as is, it puts more pressure on Russia in the Donbas. The northern flank might become open. While this isn't a game changer by itself, it requires troops that Russia does not have ATM. If Ukraine can start making this kind pf rapid progress in Kherson Oblast, the combination of the two would IMHO bring down Putin. The potential for complete defeat in the short term can't be concealed from the public. Too many rank-and-file would know about it.