[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1568534720559865857?s=46&t=x1b0GrTuZnQNWY7_3qV-aw[/tweet]

I’d take this one with a grain of salt.  But at the pace that news of Ukrainian advances has been coming, it’s not completely out of the question.  Note, I’m not sure if this refers to the city of Donetsk, which has been in the hands of the DNR separatists since the 2014 war, or Severodonetsk, which is on the other side of the Donetsk river from Lyshsyshank, and was the big prize of the Russian offensive in the summer.

Already this is looking like a complete collapse of the Russian front.  It suggests that the Russian line was a mile wide (well, several hundred miles wide) and about an inch deep.  It’s hard to believe, but then again, if reports of 50,000 Russian casualties are correct, then, maybe.  ~50,000 dead (if the data from the Russian treasury is accurate) implies at least 150,000 wounded (would be more than that but for Russian disregard for the lives of their own soldiers and crappy military evacuation). Their initial invading force was ~100,000 with maybe 50,000 in reserve plus you figure a bunch of LNR and DNR conscripts, plus the newly recruited and poorly trained “volunteers” so no way of knowing its total force but it is perhaps consistent with reports that Russian BTG’s were operating at <50%.  Military doctrine states that this is well beyond the threshold where fighting force struggles with cohesion.

I don’t want to get ahead of myself here. The success of the Ukrainian advance has exceeded even the most optimistic projections, but it is a long way from over.  Russian forces will regroup, and as Ukraine pushes towards the East, Russian supply lines are less stretched, Russian forces are more entrenched, the local population is more pro-Russian, and it will become tougher. That being said, I have consistently underestimated the Ukrainians and overestimated the Russians (because the Russian army really can’t be *that* bad, right?). I keep thinking they will get their act together.  But until they do, it is great to see what the Ukrainians have done.

BC

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Here’s the full translation of that Russian telegram:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/intelarrow/status/1568532954397171712?s=46&t=x1b0GrTuZnQNWY7_3qV-aw[/tweet]

And from the translation, if true, it appears that Ukrainians are at the doorstep of the city of Donetsk, which they lost back in 2014.

BC

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1568534720559865857?s=46&t=x1b0GrTuZnQNWY7_3qV-aw[/tweet]

I’d take this one with a grain of salt.  But at the pace that news of Ukrainian advances has been coming, it’s not completely out of the question.  Note, I’m not sure if this refers to the city of Donetsk, which has been in the hands of the DNR separatists since the 2014 war, or Severodonetsk, which is on the other side of the Donetsk river from Lyshsyshank, and was the big prize of the Russian offensive in the summer.

Already this is looking like a complete collapse of the Russian front.  It suggests that the Russian line was a mile wide (well, several hundred miles wide) and about an inch deep.  It’s hard to believe, but then again, if reports of 50,000 Russian casualties are correct, then, maybe.  ~50,000 dead (if the data from the Russian treasury is accurate) implies at least 150,000 wounded (would be more than that but for Russian disregard for the lives of their own soldiers and crappy military evacuation). Their initial invading force was ~100,000 with maybe 50,000 in reserve plus you figure a bunch of LNR and DNR conscripts, plus the newly recruited and poorly trained “volunteers” so no way of knowing its total force but it is perhaps consistent with reports that Russian BTG’s were operating at <50%.  Military doctrine states that this is well beyond the threshold where fighting force struggles with cohesion.

I don’t want to get ahead of myself here. The success of the Ukrainian advance has exceeded even the most optimistic projections, but it is a long way from over.  Russian forces will regroup, and as Ukraine pushes towards the East, Russian supply lines are less stretched, Russian forces are more entrenched, the local population is more pro-Russian, and it will become tougher. That being said, I have consistently underestimated the Ukrainians and overestimated the Russians (because the Russian army really can’t be *that* bad, right?). I keep thinking they will get their act together.  But until they do, it is great to see what the Ukrainians have done.

BC

---

Here’s the full translation of that Russian telegram:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/intelarrow/status/1568532954397171712?s=46&t=x1b0GrTuZnQNWY7_3qV-aw[/tweet]

And from the translation, if true, it appears that Ukrainians are at the doorstep of the city of Donetsk, which they lost back in 2014.

BC