(09-10-2022, 09:02 AM)Treefence Wrote: Where does this stop? Given the amounts of equipment and fleeing Russian soldiers, on top of the likely amounts that are captured, where can Russia mount a defense? It seems in occupied territory just off the front, they had minimal defenses, likely due to manpower shortages. If that is the case, is it possible this Ukrainian offensive doesn't stop till Russian borders? Goose, is there any way to predict what happens next?Ukraine will pretty soon "run out of gas". However, the definition of that isn't fixed. Eventually Ukraine will have to figure out how to supply the penetration into the previously occupied territory. That will slow them down even if Russia doesn't. The best analogy is the allied breakout from Normandy. After breaking the front, Patton basically had nothing in front of him. Logistics was what limited his advance. Nobody yet knows when Ukraine will hit that limit. Nobody yet knows where Russia intends to defend. I am not sure even Russia yet knows. I certainly can't predict what happens next.
What I hope happens next is that Russia attempts to deploy it's (only partially trained) reserves piecemeal in the north and Ukraine simply brushes them aside. The only thing that might save Russia from this mistake is that they can't physically deliver these troops fast enough to get them destroyed before cooler heads prevail. I have no idea what plans (if any) Russia has made for rally points and defense in depth. They may try to bring troops from Kherson back north. At best that takes time. Where these troops would go is unknown. Lots of opportunities for both sides to make mistakes.
UPDATE: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-abando...52300.html
A pretty reliable source with a good "read" on what is known to be true. Obviously many missing details. One thing we really don't yet know is how many Russian troops didn't make it out. Two days ago Ukraine announced one Guards Airborne regiment was completely wiped out They must have stood their ground if this is accurate. Ukraine also reported a Russian motor rifle regiment had suffered over 50% casualties. If typical, this has to be real bad news for Putin. Regiments being written off is a big deal.
