[Treefence]

If you aren't following Jomini on Twitter, I highly recommend it.  He compares the success of Ukraines counter offensive to IDF's Operation Gazelle.  Hopefully we continue to hear more and more good news for Ukraine.  

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15687...DEW3TD5mog
[url=https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1568737425597386752?s=20&t=Xt82jXfDAArxDEW3TD5mog][/url]
I really agree with his statement "If the ZSU General Staff can continue to logistically support its offensive in this region, it is likely likely that the Russian (sic) will lose more ground in the coming days." Ukraine needs to expand its hold around Kupyansk to the north and west. Now they have the rail and road choke point, they need to keep it.

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Goose, when it comes future offensives, do you think the nature of how Ukraine took these cities, and the likelihood that lots of heavy equipment is being captured, will that enable future operations, and potentially sooner than one would typically expect?  I get the feeling Ukraine has a of immense proportions opportunity to take advantage of all the chaos Russia is experiencing, and I worry a long operational pause might lead to Russia solidifying defensive lines in other areas, especially with winter coming.

I agree Ukraine has a big opportunity to take advantage of the chaos in the Russian position. Any equipment captured in this advance is unlikely to matter much for several months. They Ukrainians will have to sort through it and determine how to use it. We also don't actually know for sure how much "stuff" the Russians had to leave behind. This whole thing was possible because the Russians were thin on the ground and the Ukraine was disrupting their supply lines.

I am pretty sure Ukraine will keep driving ahead (as much as it can) until it figures out where Russia will establish their next line of defense. Then they may have to maneuver a bit and that will slow them down for sure. We don't know exactly how difficult the Ukrainian logistics stress is at this point. They need food, fuel, ammunition, and vehicle maintenance. Sadly, in some cases they will need replacements. These needs may stop Ukraine before the Russians do, unfortunately. It is a bad idea to attempt to do without logistics. It will probably fail in the short run and will almost certainly fail in the long run. OTOH if Ukraine does indeed have a "fresh" mobile force that it can commit immediately, the sky is the limit. An operational pause will indeed allow the Russians time to reorganize. Ukraine will not grant them that unless and until they have no choice. We will just have to accept that outcome. Whatever else, retain Kupyansk.

Thanks Goose, that all makes sense.  Hopefully more good news keeps flowing!

[Treefence]

If you aren't following Jomini on Twitter, I highly recommend it.  He compares the success of Ukraines counter offensive to IDF's Operation Gazelle.  Hopefully we continue to hear more and more good news for Ukraine.  

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15687...DEW3TD5mog
[url=https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1568737425597386752?s=20&t=Xt82jXfDAArxDEW3TD5mog][/url]
I really agree with his statement "If the ZSU General Staff can continue to logistically support its offensive in this region, it is likely likely that the Russian (sic) will lose more ground in the coming days." Ukraine needs to expand its hold around Kupyansk to the north and west. Now they have the rail and road choke point, they need to keep it.

---

Goose, when it comes future offensives, do you think the nature of how Ukraine took these cities, and the likelihood that lots of heavy equipment is being captured, will that enable future operations, and potentially sooner than one would typically expect?  I get the feeling Ukraine has a of immense proportions opportunity to take advantage of all the chaos Russia is experiencing, and I worry a long operational pause might lead to Russia solidifying defensive lines in other areas, especially with winter coming.

I agree Ukraine has a big opportunity to take advantage of the chaos in the Russian position. Any equipment captured in this advance is unlikely to matter much for several months. They Ukrainians will have to sort through it and determine how to use it. We also don't actually know for sure how much "stuff" the Russians had to leave behind. This whole thing was possible because the Russians were thin on the ground and the Ukraine was disrupting their supply lines.

I am pretty sure Ukraine will keep driving ahead (as much as it can) until it figures out where Russia will establish their next line of defense. Then they may have to maneuver a bit and that will slow them down for sure. We don't know exactly how difficult the Ukrainian logistics stress is at this point. They need food, fuel, ammunition, and vehicle maintenance. Sadly, in some cases they will need replacements. These needs may stop Ukraine before the Russians do, unfortunately. It is a bad idea to attempt to do without logistics. It will probably fail in the short run and will almost certainly fail in the long run. OTOH if Ukraine does indeed have a "fresh" mobile force that it can commit immediately, the sky is the limit. An operational pause will indeed allow the Russians time to reorganize. Ukraine will not grant them that unless and until they have no choice. We will just have to accept that outcome. Whatever else, retain Kupyansk.

Thanks Goose, that all makes sense.  Hopefully more good news keeps flowing!