A complete rout/collapse. I think this ends when Ukraine says it does now. And it probably ends with Ukrainian Crimea and maybe even some or all of the separatist republics.
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1569140797521678338?s=20&t=CLQaQxq4514wUfTJsJdWGA[/tweet]
Russia will need to develop new supply lines to much of their troops east of the Oskil, and Ukraine will probably have the better morale and supply in this area that was previously Russian rear, without good entrenchment.
I think we will continue to see big Ukrainian gains in the days ahead, while work continues at consolidating the thousands of square miles they have liberated. With much of the gains due to frank Russian unorganized retreat, I bet the Ukrainians retain significant offensive capability in the area.
I would also say this result really validates the US and NATO approach to supporting Ukraine. Do I wish we sent F16s and ATACMS? Yes, and I hope we still do. But while HIMARS, Javelin, 155mm arty, HARM in particular with the recent offensive, have all made a big difference, the ultimate difference has been Ukrainian morale/motivation and preparation compared against Russian low morale and disorganization. Turns out they didn't need ATACMS or F16s to accomplish one of the biggest routs in Kharkiv in modern combat history. Mig29s with jerry rigged HARMs+HIMARS+Bayraktar was sufficient.
The Ukrainian general staff has run circles around the Russian's, and I think a lot of that goes down to Putin starting this with unrealistic war aims given his military capability. Faced with impossible goals, Russia has steadily bled men and equipment they could not readily replenish while Ukraine has only gotten stronger. And a big big help also from US intelligence at providing targeting information for Russian ammo dumps, command and control, air defense, as well as helping Ukraine find the weak links to attack in their latest Kharkiv offensive.
The past week has been an astounding and unprecedented win for Ukraine and the democratic West against Putin and naked imperial aggression. I always thought Ukraine would repel Russia in the end, but never thought it would all happen as rapidly as it seems to be now.
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1569140797521678338?s=20&t=CLQaQxq4514wUfTJsJdWGA[/tweet]
Russia will need to develop new supply lines to much of their troops east of the Oskil, and Ukraine will probably have the better morale and supply in this area that was previously Russian rear, without good entrenchment.
I think we will continue to see big Ukrainian gains in the days ahead, while work continues at consolidating the thousands of square miles they have liberated. With much of the gains due to frank Russian unorganized retreat, I bet the Ukrainians retain significant offensive capability in the area.
I would also say this result really validates the US and NATO approach to supporting Ukraine. Do I wish we sent F16s and ATACMS? Yes, and I hope we still do. But while HIMARS, Javelin, 155mm arty, HARM in particular with the recent offensive, have all made a big difference, the ultimate difference has been Ukrainian morale/motivation and preparation compared against Russian low morale and disorganization. Turns out they didn't need ATACMS or F16s to accomplish one of the biggest routs in Kharkiv in modern combat history. Mig29s with jerry rigged HARMs+HIMARS+Bayraktar was sufficient.
The Ukrainian general staff has run circles around the Russian's, and I think a lot of that goes down to Putin starting this with unrealistic war aims given his military capability. Faced with impossible goals, Russia has steadily bled men and equipment they could not readily replenish while Ukraine has only gotten stronger. And a big big help also from US intelligence at providing targeting information for Russian ammo dumps, command and control, air defense, as well as helping Ukraine find the weak links to attack in their latest Kharkiv offensive.
The past week has been an astounding and unprecedented win for Ukraine and the democratic West against Putin and naked imperial aggression. I always thought Ukraine would repel Russia in the end, but never thought it would all happen as rapidly as it seems to be now.