[Goose]

Goose, it's also possible the west will be even more aggressive with its support for Ukraine as Russia weakens. I mean all the democratic countries Russia has f*cked with in terms of political and election interference, online propaganda, etc. may see the ROI of stepping on Russia's throat as a can't miss deal.

Of all the things and motivations other "democratic" nations have to oppose Russia, IMO the things you cite here, while "true", are absolutely the LEAST motivating to help for Ukraine. You also might want to consider the effect this is having on those EU nations where utility bills have increased 500%. I have a friend in Rome who intends to burn wood this winter to heat his house because he can't afford gas. He has a well-paying job, but the rate hikes are very serious. Italy is also in much better shape than Germany, gas wise. These effects I think are much more likely to be the ones that motivate politics in the EU.

It's possible Putin does something really dumb that triggers a much stronger global military response. My point is a whole lot can still happen that could make things more difficult for Russia as much as and probably more than for Ukraine.

There are indeed many uncertainties about what the future holds. However, I see no reason to believe those uncertainties particularly favor Ukraine. If anything, I would say the opposite, unfortunately.

[Goose]

Goose, it's also possible the west will be even more aggressive with its support for Ukraine as Russia weakens. I mean all the democratic countries Russia has f*cked with in terms of political and election interference, online propaganda, etc. may see the ROI of stepping on Russia's throat as a can't miss deal.

Of all the things and motivations other "democratic" nations have to oppose Russia, IMO the things you cite here, while "true", are absolutely the LEAST motivating to help for Ukraine. You also might want to consider the effect this is having on those EU nations where utility bills have increased 500%. I have a friend in Rome who intends to burn wood this winter to heat his house because he can't afford gas. He has a well-paying job, but the rate hikes are very serious. Italy is also in much better shape than Germany, gas wise. These effects I think are much more likely to be the ones that motivate politics in the EU.

It's possible Putin does something really dumb that triggers a much stronger global military response. My point is a whole lot can still happen that could make things more difficult for Russia as much as and probably more than for Ukraine.

There are indeed many uncertainties about what the future holds. However, I see no reason to believe those uncertainties particularly favor Ukraine. If anything, I would say the opposite, unfortunately.