09-12-2022, 11:49 AM
General mobilization will get Putin nothing but more trouble. Conscripts going off to fight a losing war with old gear will have the same issues that caused a whole Russian front to abandon their gear and run in Kharkiv.
Putin is dumb but he probably knows this at least, and that's why he hasn't instituted one yet. Losing Crimea and the separatist republics will be a blow, but he has managed to pretty much eliminate other power centers in the country. A negotiated withdrawal is probably a better chance for Putin to retain power than a general draft that still ends in defeat.
It does seem like Kherson is going to fall soon. Russia has no operational reserves to reinforce this area and troops are rumored to be running out of ammo and surrendering in a patchwork fashion.
After that it's only a question of where Ukraine decides to make their push to the Azov sea, and whether any Russians will fight knowing how many of their compatriots just turned tail and ran when they met a determined enemy. Ukraine likely has a lot of GMLRS and TB2 ammo that was ready for use in Kharkiv but quickly became unnecessary due to the rout, now the Ukrainian general staff gets the fun job of deciding when and where to deploy it!
Putin is dumb but he probably knows this at least, and that's why he hasn't instituted one yet. Losing Crimea and the separatist republics will be a blow, but he has managed to pretty much eliminate other power centers in the country. A negotiated withdrawal is probably a better chance for Putin to retain power than a general draft that still ends in defeat.
It does seem like Kherson is going to fall soon. Russia has no operational reserves to reinforce this area and troops are rumored to be running out of ammo and surrendering in a patchwork fashion.
After that it's only a question of where Ukraine decides to make their push to the Azov sea, and whether any Russians will fight knowing how many of their compatriots just turned tail and ran when they met a determined enemy. Ukraine likely has a lot of GMLRS and TB2 ammo that was ready for use in Kharkiv but quickly became unnecessary due to the rout, now the Ukrainian general staff gets the fun job of deciding when and where to deploy it!