[Goose]

Interesting, this morning on NPR’s “up first” podcast they suggested that it was a deliberate feint.

https://overcast.fm/+Ys-uiORt

I think your “Hobson’s Choice” makes more sense.  If Russia didn’t move troops to reinforce Kherson, they would have pushed much faster/harder down there.

Question for Goose: Nova Kakhovka is on the East bank of the Dnieper.  Do you think the Ukrainians will be able to cross?

Uncertain, but the dam makes it lots easier. It is unlikely Russia would blow the dam even if they could. It is also possible to cross infantry on small boats above the dam if you have artillery that can easily reach the east side. I think it likely Ukraine will attempt such a crossing if they get there. OTOH, it is only necessary that they hold the west bank of the Dnieper. The goal is to prevent the Russians from attacking down the M14 to Kherson (or visa versa). Russia would then have the job of an opposed river crossing. Obviously, controlling both sides of the river is the safest. It also threatens an attack down the M14 into Kherson Oblast proper, another good thing.

Also, in terms of offensives, will be tougher in the winter or in the fall?  What I read is that there are two Rasputitsa’s (aka mud seasons), one in the fall due to rain and one in the spring due to snow melt.  My understanding is that aside from the risk of cold/exposure, armored fighting is easier in the winter, when the ground is solid.

The rain can turn the ground into a quagmire. This confines any possible offensives to the roads, and even then it is difficult. When the ground freezes, this removes the constraint. However, in a true combined arms operation you need infantry. The temperatures make infantry operating in the open very prone to frostbite etc. It is hard to fight in the winter, but you can do it. Normally, one would say you need training to do so, but possibly some Ukrainian infantry has already gone through one or more winters fighting in Donbas. They may know how to do it. However, "conventional wisdom" is that the pace of operations in winter will be much slower.   Air support for both sides will be even harder to get because of horrible flying weather.

And also, would retreating across the Dniper be possible in the winter when the river will be frozen?

Yes, absolutely. If Russia can hold on that long they will get a bridge many km wide. However, from
http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/dis...oRiver.htm

In winter the Dnipro freezes over, usually after a 20-day spell of subzero temperature. The average freezing and thawing dates for Kyiv are 17 December and 24 March; for Cherkasy, 23 December and 22 March; for Zaporizhia, 5 January and 9 March; for Kherson, 3 January and 3 March. The ice regime is not stable: sometimes the Dnipro freezes for short intervals, and sometimes it does not freeze at all.

It is also necessary to ensure the river ice is thick enough to support heavy equipment if you are trying to move it that way. IMHO the Russians can't last until January in Kherson baring some very unexpected event. However, I am sure Ukraine would much prefer to get them out before the bad weather starts. Conventional wisdom says they have until sometime in October. Not much time really.

[Goose]

Interesting, this morning on NPR’s “up first” podcast they suggested that it was a deliberate feint.

https://overcast.fm/+Ys-uiORt

I think your “Hobson’s Choice” makes more sense.  If Russia didn’t move troops to reinforce Kherson, they would have pushed much faster/harder down there.

Question for Goose: Nova Kakhovka is on the East bank of the Dnieper.  Do you think the Ukrainians will be able to cross?

Uncertain, but the dam makes it lots easier. It is unlikely Russia would blow the dam even if they could. It is also possible to cross infantry on small boats above the dam if you have artillery that can easily reach the east side. I think it likely Ukraine will attempt such a crossing if they get there. OTOH, it is only necessary that they hold the west bank of the Dnieper. The goal is to prevent the Russians from attacking down the M14 to Kherson (or visa versa). Russia would then have the job of an opposed river crossing. Obviously, controlling both sides of the river is the safest. It also threatens an attack down the M14 into Kherson Oblast proper, another good thing.

Also, in terms of offensives, will be tougher in the winter or in the fall?  What I read is that there are two Rasputitsa’s (aka mud seasons), one in the fall due to rain and one in the spring due to snow melt.  My understanding is that aside from the risk of cold/exposure, armored fighting is easier in the winter, when the ground is solid.

The rain can turn the ground into a quagmire. This confines any possible offensives to the roads, and even then it is difficult. When the ground freezes, this removes the constraint. However, in a true combined arms operation you need infantry. The temperatures make infantry operating in the open very prone to frostbite etc. It is hard to fight in the winter, but you can do it. Normally, one would say you need training to do so, but possibly some Ukrainian infantry has already gone through one or more winters fighting in Donbas. They may know how to do it. However, "conventional wisdom" is that the pace of operations in winter will be much slower.   Air support for both sides will be even harder to get because of horrible flying weather.

And also, would retreating across the Dniper be possible in the winter when the river will be frozen?

Yes, absolutely. If Russia can hold on that long they will get a bridge many km wide. However, from
http://www.encyclopediaofukraine.com/dis...oRiver.htm

In winter the Dnipro freezes over, usually after a 20-day spell of subzero temperature. The average freezing and thawing dates for Kyiv are 17 December and 24 March; for Cherkasy, 23 December and 22 March; for Zaporizhia, 5 January and 9 March; for Kherson, 3 January and 3 March. The ice regime is not stable: sometimes the Dnipro freezes for short intervals, and sometimes it does not freeze at all.

It is also necessary to ensure the river ice is thick enough to support heavy equipment if you are trying to move it that way. IMHO the Russians can't last until January in Kherson baring some very unexpected event. However, I am sure Ukraine would much prefer to get them out before the bad weather starts. Conventional wisdom says they have until sometime in October. Not much time really.