[Goose]

Pentagon finally gave a timeline for the first to NASAMS, they say they will be delivered within 2 months.  I'm guessing it'll be a little bit till the next 6 arrive though.

Is Ukraine likely to use these primarily to defend population centers or should we expect to see them deployed nearer to the line of contact, maybe in places like Kupyansk or Sloviansk to help defend strategic positions and/or to give cover for troop advances?

Very good question! I have recently spent quite a lot of CPU time looking at the NASAMS as a missile defense for a city. The bottom line is that in a stand-alone mode an NASAMS can defend a circle of radius 24 (+/-) km from low flying cruise missiles. It can also defend a similar area against aircraft flying nap-of-the-earth. As aircraft fly higher the radius expands to about 70 km.

Against KH-22 missiles and against almost all Iskander variants it is basically useless. The performance against S-300/400 missiles in a ground attack role depends on their usage. If they are lobbed to high altitude, transit, and then come downhill NASAMS can't do much. The problems are many. The radar has a maximum elevation angle of 55 degrees, so anything that gets "above" the radar is invisible. The detection range is based on radial distance so things at high altitude can get closer in (X,Y) before you see them. The KH-22 family in "high altitude" mode can be "seen" for about 6 seconds before it is at an elevation angle > 55 degrees. The AMRAAM missile isn't designed to attack objects that are at much higher elevation than the launcher. It simply isn't fast enough to get there before the target disappears. The AMRAAM also runs out of energy quickly when climbing, so it can't "hunt" such objects on it's own. An SM-6 it definitely is not. It is an air-to-air missile. In a "look-down shoot-down" scenario it is fine, as it gets a boost from gravity. It isn't going to go "uphill" very far however. The radar can't target objects high that are in a relatively steep dive, so waiting for the target to get low on it's way down won't work either.

So, if you want to defend a city, it better be a small one. The good news is that the Ukrainian cities are mostly physically small. You aren't going to cover all the outlying villages however. OTOH, as a point defense weapon against aircraft or cruise missiles NASAMs will work quite well. It can be used to cover an advancing armored force . If it were me, that is how I would use it. However I think Ukraine has been sold on the idea it can defend their cities. I expect we may find out. In neither case does it make you invulnerable.

[Goose]

Pentagon finally gave a timeline for the first to NASAMS, they say they will be delivered within 2 months.  I'm guessing it'll be a little bit till the next 6 arrive though.

Is Ukraine likely to use these primarily to defend population centers or should we expect to see them deployed nearer to the line of contact, maybe in places like Kupyansk or Sloviansk to help defend strategic positions and/or to give cover for troop advances?

Very good question! I have recently spent quite a lot of CPU time looking at the NASAMS as a missile defense for a city. The bottom line is that in a stand-alone mode an NASAMS can defend a circle of radius 24 (+/-) km from low flying cruise missiles. It can also defend a similar area against aircraft flying nap-of-the-earth. As aircraft fly higher the radius expands to about 70 km.

Against KH-22 missiles and against almost all Iskander variants it is basically useless. The performance against S-300/400 missiles in a ground attack role depends on their usage. If they are lobbed to high altitude, transit, and then come downhill NASAMS can't do much. The problems are many. The radar has a maximum elevation angle of 55 degrees, so anything that gets "above" the radar is invisible. The detection range is based on radial distance so things at high altitude can get closer in (X,Y) before you see them. The KH-22 family in "high altitude" mode can be "seen" for about 6 seconds before it is at an elevation angle > 55 degrees. The AMRAAM missile isn't designed to attack objects that are at much higher elevation than the launcher. It simply isn't fast enough to get there before the target disappears. The AMRAAM also runs out of energy quickly when climbing, so it can't "hunt" such objects on it's own. An SM-6 it definitely is not. It is an air-to-air missile. In a "look-down shoot-down" scenario it is fine, as it gets a boost from gravity. It isn't going to go "uphill" very far however. The radar can't target objects high that are in a relatively steep dive, so waiting for the target to get low on it's way down won't work either.

So, if you want to defend a city, it better be a small one. The good news is that the Ukrainian cities are mostly physically small. You aren't going to cover all the outlying villages however. OTOH, as a point defense weapon against aircraft or cruise missiles NASAMs will work quite well. It can be used to cover an advancing armored force . If it were me, that is how I would use it. However I think Ukraine has been sold on the idea it can defend their cities. I expect we may find out. In neither case does it make you invulnerable.