[Goose]

That recent NY times article indicated the US judged the southern offensive would have too many casualties and a lower chance of success so the Kharkiv one was gamed out and judged to be superior.

The southern offensive will probably still be coming at some point, and all the captured Russian materiel from Kharkiv will help.

The "southern offensive" is a broad entity. There are versions that includes Marioupl to Kherson, Melitopol to Kherson, Nova Kakhovka to Kherson, and the smallest alternative which is Kherson and the rest of the right bank to the Black Sea. There are also "hybrid" options that include some of the above. In the near term I think Kherson is definitely the immediate target but it will be a slower slog for many reasons. I HOPE Nova Kakhovka is also involved, because if it isn't Russia has a clear counterattack route that doesn't involve an opposed river crossing. We shall see. I think it is pretty clear that a very wide area southern offensive was always risky and probably beyond Ukraine's ability. Glad it worked out the way it did.

[Goose]

That recent NY times article indicated the US judged the southern offensive would have too many casualties and a lower chance of success so the Kharkiv one was gamed out and judged to be superior.

The southern offensive will probably still be coming at some point, and all the captured Russian materiel from Kharkiv will help.

The "southern offensive" is a broad entity. There are versions that includes Marioupl to Kherson, Melitopol to Kherson, Nova Kakhovka to Kherson, and the smallest alternative which is Kherson and the rest of the right bank to the Black Sea. There are also "hybrid" options that include some of the above. In the near term I think Kherson is definitely the immediate target but it will be a slower slog for many reasons. I HOPE Nova Kakhovka is also involved, because if it isn't Russia has a clear counterattack route that doesn't involve an opposed river crossing. We shall see. I think it is pretty clear that a very wide area southern offensive was always risky and probably beyond Ukraine's ability. Glad it worked out the way it did.