[Goose]

Putin getting couped is seeming more and more plausible. This was a fun article about the history of Kremlin coups.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-f...ps-kremlin

Death of Stalin is more fun though. Would be really awesome if Putin gets a bullet to the dome after a show trial.

I, on the other hand, hope Putin spends years in prison, during which time he is tried for war crimes (and, I presume, convicted).
I think the war crimes trial would be useful to deter future attempts like Putin's.

I strongly suspect that if Putin is removed there will be no trial (show or otherwise) and no prison involved. Putin may be allowed to "retire" and will be protected from trial because nobody in the political "elite" in Russia has clean hands and such a trial would reveal that fact. The rest of the world may just have to hold their nose and accept this in return for him going at all. OTOH somebody may just shoot Putin and some scapegoat will plead "insanity" for doing it (or will be shot while trying to escape). It would be great if the Russian people would rise up and "clean up Moscow". However, history (recent and "ancient") shows such uprisings install leadership with many of the same (or worse) liabilities present in those deposed :-). This renders "justice" thin on the ground.

I also frankly doubt the deterrence value of such a trial, if it ever could occur. The pathological nature of absolute rulers who commit such crimes does not admit the possibility of failure. They all believe they are untouchable when they commit such crimes, and are not rational enough to realize they may not be in power forever and the immunity that their position supplies is ephemeral. In some cases they are correct because they only way they leave power is in a coffin.

[Goose]

Putin getting couped is seeming more and more plausible. This was a fun article about the history of Kremlin coups.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-f...ps-kremlin

Death of Stalin is more fun though. Would be really awesome if Putin gets a bullet to the dome after a show trial.

I, on the other hand, hope Putin spends years in prison, during which time he is tried for war crimes (and, I presume, convicted).
I think the war crimes trial would be useful to deter future attempts like Putin's.

I strongly suspect that if Putin is removed there will be no trial (show or otherwise) and no prison involved. Putin may be allowed to "retire" and will be protected from trial because nobody in the political "elite" in Russia has clean hands and such a trial would reveal that fact. The rest of the world may just have to hold their nose and accept this in return for him going at all. OTOH somebody may just shoot Putin and some scapegoat will plead "insanity" for doing it (or will be shot while trying to escape). It would be great if the Russian people would rise up and "clean up Moscow". However, history (recent and "ancient") shows such uprisings install leadership with many of the same (or worse) liabilities present in those deposed :-). This renders "justice" thin on the ground.

I also frankly doubt the deterrence value of such a trial, if it ever could occur. The pathological nature of absolute rulers who commit such crimes does not admit the possibility of failure. They all believe they are untouchable when they commit such crimes, and are not rational enough to realize they may not be in power forever and the immunity that their position supplies is ephemeral. In some cases they are correct because they only way they leave power is in a coffin.