[Goose]

Russian economy has weathered the sanctions ok so far, just 10% contraction. But this will be another level of disruption. Seems this will difficult to sustain for too long, especially because mobilization will only continue to feed men to the meat grinder as the situation worsens for Russian armed forces in Ukraine.

I am not sure I would call a 10% contraction an OK weathering :-). Certainly such a contraction in the US would not be viewed as such, but then again, Russians have different standards. That said, it is not by any means a given that the situation will continue to decay for Russian troops in Ukraine. There are lots of reasons to think it will.

However, the arrival of winter may give the Russians a "breathing space" to reorganize. I am sure Ukraine is going to do all they can to prevent that, but it isn't for sure they will succeed. I am sure that Ukraine right now sees they have a relative advantage and would like to exploit it and end this war NOW. OTOH they know their advantage is a slim one and they could blow it by getting too many troops killed trying. The "wild card" is how well Ukraine the country will make it through winter. Their economy has contracted considerably. They are suffering 30% inflation and a similar percentage drop in GDP. Before all that, they were the poorest country in Europe (per capita). This "battle front" may come much more to the fore during the winter. Lets hope the EU and the US will remember what is at stake and not let this get out of hand.

Putin et al undoubtedly are trying to get through the winter and start next spring with a renewed military and a renewed competitive advantage. Obviously, that isn't going to be easy, especially in light of their past performance. However, it isn't impossible. Ukraine and the west needs to continue improving and training the Ukrainian forces to give them an even greater edge over Russia. This is clearly possible, we just have to do it :-).

[Goose]

Russian economy has weathered the sanctions ok so far, just 10% contraction. But this will be another level of disruption. Seems this will difficult to sustain for too long, especially because mobilization will only continue to feed men to the meat grinder as the situation worsens for Russian armed forces in Ukraine.

I am not sure I would call a 10% contraction an OK weathering :-). Certainly such a contraction in the US would not be viewed as such, but then again, Russians have different standards. That said, it is not by any means a given that the situation will continue to decay for Russian troops in Ukraine. There are lots of reasons to think it will.

However, the arrival of winter may give the Russians a "breathing space" to reorganize. I am sure Ukraine is going to do all they can to prevent that, but it isn't for sure they will succeed. I am sure that Ukraine right now sees they have a relative advantage and would like to exploit it and end this war NOW. OTOH they know their advantage is a slim one and they could blow it by getting too many troops killed trying. The "wild card" is how well Ukraine the country will make it through winter. Their economy has contracted considerably. They are suffering 30% inflation and a similar percentage drop in GDP. Before all that, they were the poorest country in Europe (per capita). This "battle front" may come much more to the fore during the winter. Lets hope the EU and the US will remember what is at stake and not let this get out of hand.

Putin et al undoubtedly are trying to get through the winter and start next spring with a renewed military and a renewed competitive advantage. Obviously, that isn't going to be easy, especially in light of their past performance. However, it isn't impossible. Ukraine and the west needs to continue improving and training the Ukrainian forces to give them an even greater edge over Russia. This is clearly possible, we just have to do it :-).