[Ohiocard]

A lot of attention is given to Shaw's compensation but I haven't seen much focus on his contract length. The reported $8.9 million that he received in 2019 is said to have included $2 million in "retroactive salary and a signing bonus" unique to that year. While not much is known in general about Stanford's coaching contracts, it seems likely that Shaw agreed to a contract extension with a signing bonus and pay raise following the 2018 Sun Bowl win. If $2 million was signing bonus, that would put his base comp at $6.9 million but let's say $6 million to be conservative.

Regarding contract length, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that somewhere along the way Shaw agreed to a 10-year term. That's in line with the top coaches and especially someone who was revered to the extent that Shaw was on campus circa 2015. If he agreed to an extension in 2018, that would likely reset the contract to its original length. As far as the guaranteed portion of Shaw's compensation, it's perfectly reasonable to assume that it's fully guaranteed - most top tier college coaches have fully guaranteed contracts. Assuming he has six years left on a $6 million/year contract, that would leave Stanford on the hook for $36 million to fire Shaw plus at least another $5-7 million to buyout the assistants (no new head coach is taking the job on the condition that they have to keep Shaw's staff). That's $40+ million.

Who knows, maybe my numbers are way off. Maybe Shaw's deal is only partially guaranteed or maybe it wasn't for 10 years. Divide that number in half and you're still left with $20 million. Colorado just raised a lot of eyebrows ponying up $8.9 million to dump Dorrell. Wisconsin and Nebraska are paying buyouts north of $10 million but they have Big Ten money. Not to mention that Stanford simply isn't the type of place that would pay a coach a large sum of money to walk away.

Long story short, I simply don't see any way that the numbers add up in a scenario that includes Shaw's departure in the forseeable future.

The timing could not be worse with the School having no idea how much TV $ it should be expecting in the next 5 years. Unlike the Big 10 & SEC who are in a position of strength and financially invested in the programs success. Also, If you can make 10 million a year to coach & live in Nebraska, Bama, or Wisconsin how much would Stanford have to pay to make up for the cost of living in Palo Alto? There is a reason all of our assistant coaches live in campus owned condos. 

PS we must look at the candidates that have successfully rebuilt programs and figure out what % of their teams came from the portal in the last 2 years? Evaluating transfer prospects and finding the right guys is one of the most important abilities in a CFB coach, but it is useless right now at Stanford.

[Ohiocard]

A lot of attention is given to Shaw's compensation but I haven't seen much focus on his contract length. The reported $8.9 million that he received in 2019 is said to have included $2 million in "retroactive salary and a signing bonus" unique to that year. While not much is known in general about Stanford's coaching contracts, it seems likely that Shaw agreed to a contract extension with a signing bonus and pay raise following the 2018 Sun Bowl win. If $2 million was signing bonus, that would put his base comp at $6.9 million but let's say $6 million to be conservative.

Regarding contract length, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that somewhere along the way Shaw agreed to a 10-year term. That's in line with the top coaches and especially someone who was revered to the extent that Shaw was on campus circa 2015. If he agreed to an extension in 2018, that would likely reset the contract to its original length. As far as the guaranteed portion of Shaw's compensation, it's perfectly reasonable to assume that it's fully guaranteed - most top tier college coaches have fully guaranteed contracts. Assuming he has six years left on a $6 million/year contract, that would leave Stanford on the hook for $36 million to fire Shaw plus at least another $5-7 million to buyout the assistants (no new head coach is taking the job on the condition that they have to keep Shaw's staff). That's $40+ million.

Who knows, maybe my numbers are way off. Maybe Shaw's deal is only partially guaranteed or maybe it wasn't for 10 years. Divide that number in half and you're still left with $20 million. Colorado just raised a lot of eyebrows ponying up $8.9 million to dump Dorrell. Wisconsin and Nebraska are paying buyouts north of $10 million but they have Big Ten money. Not to mention that Stanford simply isn't the type of place that would pay a coach a large sum of money to walk away.

Long story short, I simply don't see any way that the numbers add up in a scenario that includes Shaw's departure in the forseeable future.

The timing could not be worse with the School having no idea how much TV $ it should be expecting in the next 5 years. Unlike the Big 10 & SEC who are in a position of strength and financially invested in the programs success. Also, If you can make 10 million a year to coach & live in Nebraska, Bama, or Wisconsin how much would Stanford have to pay to make up for the cost of living in Palo Alto? There is a reason all of our assistant coaches live in campus owned condos. 

PS we must look at the candidates that have successfully rebuilt programs and figure out what % of their teams came from the portal in the last 2 years? Evaluating transfer prospects and finding the right guys is one of the most important abilities in a CFB coach, but it is useless right now at Stanford.