[GK3]

This is a dynamic situation, so by the time I post this I'm sure it's already outdated, but the success of Ukrainian forces has made Russia pull back to avoid encirclement, and now all positions on the inhulets river, north east of where the bridgehead was, have been liberated.  This is a total collapse of the north east Kherson front.  



[url=https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577265181679570945?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw]https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577265181679570945?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw

Indeed it is a collapse, but from the Russian point of view, if you are going to collapse, this is the place to do it :-). Ukraine can do real damage if they keep going down the right bank of the river. However, they want to destroy/capture the Russians in the area. That is going to put them in a situation where they either slow down to gobble up the Russians or risk having Russians on their flank. Trying to do both is beyond their means, unless the Russians run so fast there is nobody to "mop up". If I were the Russian commander, that is what I would try to do. This would create a greater concentration of Russians closer to Nova Kakhovka, which should be the Russian ne plus ultra.

The advance from Davydiv Brid is more direct, and if they could get a collapse there it could get them to Nova Kakhovka faster. That would also create a wide envelopment of the Russians on the west bank. It seems the Russians are doing better against that attack, but as we have seen, that can change fast. Let's hope it does!

It seems to me that the Ukraine should go all out to reach Nova Kahovka before the Russians.  While its possible the Russian forces under attack from Davydiv Brid could some how maneuver enough force to hit the Ukraine flank along the river, it would be extremely difficult.  If the Ukraine gets to the bridge first the Russian forces are in a world of hurt.  So as you say the best thing Russian forces  can probably do is to try and withdraw to Nova Kahovka as fast as possible while maintaining some semblance of command and control.  A big challenge for the commanders and troops on  both sides.  HIMARS can probably interdict most of T2207 running down to Nova Kahovka.  Would not be a fun retreat.
Edit: Just saw an article claiming that since the mobilization was announced 700,000 Russians have left the country. I would assume that they are from the better off group and were contributors to Russian society. What kind of impact is removing a 1,000,000 people going to have on the economy and society? Number seems awfully large to me.

[GK3]

This is a dynamic situation, so by the time I post this I'm sure it's already outdated, but the success of Ukrainian forces has made Russia pull back to avoid encirclement, and now all positions on the inhulets river, north east of where the bridgehead was, have been liberated.  This is a total collapse of the north east Kherson front.  



[url=https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577265181679570945?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw]https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577265181679570945?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw

Indeed it is a collapse, but from the Russian point of view, if you are going to collapse, this is the place to do it :-). Ukraine can do real damage if they keep going down the right bank of the river. However, they want to destroy/capture the Russians in the area. That is going to put them in a situation where they either slow down to gobble up the Russians or risk having Russians on their flank. Trying to do both is beyond their means, unless the Russians run so fast there is nobody to "mop up". If I were the Russian commander, that is what I would try to do. This would create a greater concentration of Russians closer to Nova Kakhovka, which should be the Russian ne plus ultra.

The advance from Davydiv Brid is more direct, and if they could get a collapse there it could get them to Nova Kakhovka faster. That would also create a wide envelopment of the Russians on the west bank. It seems the Russians are doing better against that attack, but as we have seen, that can change fast. Let's hope it does!

It seems to me that the Ukraine should go all out to reach Nova Kahovka before the Russians.  While its possible the Russian forces under attack from Davydiv Brid could some how maneuver enough force to hit the Ukraine flank along the river, it would be extremely difficult.  If the Ukraine gets to the bridge first the Russian forces are in a world of hurt.  So as you say the best thing Russian forces  can probably do is to try and withdraw to Nova Kahovka as fast as possible while maintaining some semblance of command and control.  A big challenge for the commanders and troops on  both sides.  HIMARS can probably interdict most of T2207 running down to Nova Kahovka.  Would not be a fun retreat.
Edit: Just saw an article claiming that since the mobilization was announced 700,000 Russians have left the country. I would assume that they are from the better off group and were contributors to Russian society. What kind of impact is removing a 1,000,000 people going to have on the economy and society? Number seems awfully large to me.