[Goose]

I agree in part but it's seeming like this was a one-off massive truck bomb that they somehow got past the checkpoints. Will be hard to replicate.

If this was ATACMS then it would be a different story but the picture coming together makes that seem unlikely (no impact crater or debris, no active air defense, no incoming missile reported seen or heard or on video).

Unquestionably a of immense proportions moral victory and will impact logistics probably temporarily to a degree and will require increased attention from Russia to keep it open. But I doubt Ukraine will be able to knock it out completely absent ATACMS or similar.

I think you are exactly correct. It was probably some kind of "IED" attack. It could have been (at least in theory) a load of fertilizer with a little "extra" dose of diesel added. Those types of bombs can be quite effective, as we know from experience right here in the US. The bridge can be fixed, but even that takes resources and time.

I would expect the next Ukrainian effort will be to blow up the railway tunnel on the Crimean side of the bridge. That is actually a better target, as collapsing the tunnel is easier than dropping the bridge and is much harder to quickly repair. Harder to do because you have to get the explosive either into the tunnel or on a train. I fully expect Ukraine can do that though, probably a detonator on an Russian ammunition train.

[Goose]

I agree in part but it's seeming like this was a one-off massive truck bomb that they somehow got past the checkpoints. Will be hard to replicate.

If this was ATACMS then it would be a different story but the picture coming together makes that seem unlikely (no impact crater or debris, no active air defense, no incoming missile reported seen or heard or on video).

Unquestionably a of immense proportions moral victory and will impact logistics probably temporarily to a degree and will require increased attention from Russia to keep it open. But I doubt Ukraine will be able to knock it out completely absent ATACMS or similar.

I think you are exactly correct. It was probably some kind of "IED" attack. It could have been (at least in theory) a load of fertilizer with a little "extra" dose of diesel added. Those types of bombs can be quite effective, as we know from experience right here in the US. The bridge can be fixed, but even that takes resources and time.

I would expect the next Ukrainian effort will be to blow up the railway tunnel on the Crimean side of the bridge. That is actually a better target, as collapsing the tunnel is easier than dropping the bridge and is much harder to quickly repair. Harder to do because you have to get the explosive either into the tunnel or on a train. I fully expect Ukraine can do that though, probably a detonator on an Russian ammunition train.