[Goose]

Race against time now before the rain and cold take over. I didn’t think Ukraine would be able to get as far as it has already, but soon the weather will make advances even more challenging.

Goose, doesn't winter put an under-supplied defender in an even worse position?  I'm trying to understand the differences between this situation and that of the Germans at Stalingrad.  Could the Ukrainians mount something like the Russian winter offensive from November though February 1942, trapping the overextended Russians?  How is winter going to make it easier to resupply the Russians in Kherson?  So much is said about the rain and mud, but eventually the ground freezes, and it becomes firm enough for vehicles and difficult to even dig a foxhole.  One might think that those conditions would favor a war of movement over a static war.  So why is the conventional wisdom that the Ukrainians can't continue their offensive when winter begins?

Apparently some Ukrainian soldiers have the same thoughts:

“Think of the orcs in their trenches,” Lieutenant Oleh said, using a derisive term for Russian soldiers. “They have no heavy weaponry, no supplies, it’s cold and raining. It’s a really difficult state for morale.”

If they try to hold out in Kherson city, he said, referring to a protracted battle with the Nazis in World War II, “it will be Stalingrad in winter for them."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/29/world...llery.html

Of course the comparison is too facile.  But soldiers without adequate supplies in a city during winter cannot be a happy situation.

Very much agree, but something isn't "right" here. If the Russian supply situation is so bad, why has the number of outgoing artillery shells from the Russians been increasing, not decreasing? The Russians have moved many conscripts onto the right bank. Why do that if you can't supply them? The Russians did supposedly "evacuate" the civilians, which would somewhat ease the supply situation, but that doesn't increase the supply of military items, like ammunition. It could be that the Russians are just clueless (and/or desperate), but for some reason I doubt that. Something isn't adding up here. It may be those pontoon bridges are working a bit too well.

[Goose]

Race against time now before the rain and cold take over. I didn’t think Ukraine would be able to get as far as it has already, but soon the weather will make advances even more challenging.

Goose, doesn't winter put an under-supplied defender in an even worse position?  I'm trying to understand the differences between this situation and that of the Germans at Stalingrad.  Could the Ukrainians mount something like the Russian winter offensive from November though February 1942, trapping the overextended Russians?  How is winter going to make it easier to resupply the Russians in Kherson?  So much is said about the rain and mud, but eventually the ground freezes, and it becomes firm enough for vehicles and difficult to even dig a foxhole.  One might think that those conditions would favor a war of movement over a static war.  So why is the conventional wisdom that the Ukrainians can't continue their offensive when winter begins?

Apparently some Ukrainian soldiers have the same thoughts:

“Think of the orcs in their trenches,” Lieutenant Oleh said, using a derisive term for Russian soldiers. “They have no heavy weaponry, no supplies, it’s cold and raining. It’s a really difficult state for morale.”

If they try to hold out in Kherson city, he said, referring to a protracted battle with the Nazis in World War II, “it will be Stalingrad in winter for them."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/29/world...llery.html

Of course the comparison is too facile.  But soldiers without adequate supplies in a city during winter cannot be a happy situation.

Very much agree, but something isn't "right" here. If the Russian supply situation is so bad, why has the number of outgoing artillery shells from the Russians been increasing, not decreasing? The Russians have moved many conscripts onto the right bank. Why do that if you can't supply them? The Russians did supposedly "evacuate" the civilians, which would somewhat ease the supply situation, but that doesn't increase the supply of military items, like ammunition. It could be that the Russians are just clueless (and/or desperate), but for some reason I doubt that. Something isn't adding up here. It may be those pontoon bridges are working a bit too well.