[Goose]

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/...fR152_P8Sg

What a massive failure by the Russians.

BC

The lack of success in destroying HIMARS is due to several factors, some inherent in the HIMARS itself, some due to the Ukrainian's usage of the HIMARS, and some due to the strangeness of this war. Only a few of these element IMHO are Russian failures. The HIMARS itself is inherently difficult to target because it can drive away after firing literally in a very few minutes. Weapons like artillery and ballistic rockets become useless after that very short window closes.

The HIMARS as used by Ukraine is a very valuable asset and they know it. They also know that any HIMARS that is destroyed won't be replaced anytime "soon". Therefore, Ukraine always does "shoot and scoot" and does not place the HIMARS in locations where it might be targeted through a "random" sighting. They take care of them. The HIMARS has the attribute it outranges 152/155 mm artillery (and obviously anything smaller). The Ukrainians as a rule don't let the HIMARS fall under that footprint. This means the only way Russia is going to hit one is to use an aircraft, a drone, or a SRBM. Even in those cases (unless the Russians are real lucky) the flight time is long enough the target will be gone. A drone or an aircraft could search a bit, because they are faster than the HIMARS truck and they know where it was a few minutes ago. However, operating aircraft/drones over Ukraine well behind Ukrainian lines has been somewhat problematic for Russia, and flying a search pattern isn't very safe.

The Russian counter-battery radars are generally attached to Army artillery units. They aren't designed to target beyond artillery range, and have no organic way to contact and task air force units. There are also a limited number of such units. It would take some luck for them to get a good "fix" on the HIMARS in the first place. Even if they did that, their battery couldn't reach it and there is no way to pass the information on to other assets that perhaps could. Even if there were it probably would take too much time.
 
If the Russians really wanted to go "HIMARS hunting", they could. A Mainstay orbiting in Russian airspace can get a fix on the launch point almost immediately. It could then, at least in theory, command launch via data link Iskander-M missiles from one of several batteries that are left "locked and loaded" to target HIMARS. Several batteries will be needed to ensure the flight time is small enough (hopefully) to hit the HIMARS before it moves. Obviously this ties up a bunch of valuable and rare assets. The Russians have also shown a strange unwillingness to use their airborne C3 capabilities in this war. It would also require organizational skills that they theoretically have but have also not been demonstrated.

[Goose]

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/...fR152_P8Sg

What a massive failure by the Russians.

BC

The lack of success in destroying HIMARS is due to several factors, some inherent in the HIMARS itself, some due to the Ukrainian's usage of the HIMARS, and some due to the strangeness of this war. Only a few of these element IMHO are Russian failures. The HIMARS itself is inherently difficult to target because it can drive away after firing literally in a very few minutes. Weapons like artillery and ballistic rockets become useless after that very short window closes.

The HIMARS as used by Ukraine is a very valuable asset and they know it. They also know that any HIMARS that is destroyed won't be replaced anytime "soon". Therefore, Ukraine always does "shoot and scoot" and does not place the HIMARS in locations where it might be targeted through a "random" sighting. They take care of them. The HIMARS has the attribute it outranges 152/155 mm artillery (and obviously anything smaller). The Ukrainians as a rule don't let the HIMARS fall under that footprint. This means the only way Russia is going to hit one is to use an aircraft, a drone, or a SRBM. Even in those cases (unless the Russians are real lucky) the flight time is long enough the target will be gone. A drone or an aircraft could search a bit, because they are faster than the HIMARS truck and they know where it was a few minutes ago. However, operating aircraft/drones over Ukraine well behind Ukrainian lines has been somewhat problematic for Russia, and flying a search pattern isn't very safe.

The Russian counter-battery radars are generally attached to Army artillery units. They aren't designed to target beyond artillery range, and have no organic way to contact and task air force units. There are also a limited number of such units. It would take some luck for them to get a good "fix" on the HIMARS in the first place. Even if they did that, their battery couldn't reach it and there is no way to pass the information on to other assets that perhaps could. Even if there were it probably would take too much time.
 
If the Russians really wanted to go "HIMARS hunting", they could. A Mainstay orbiting in Russian airspace can get a fix on the launch point almost immediately. It could then, at least in theory, command launch via data link Iskander-M missiles from one of several batteries that are left "locked and loaded" to target HIMARS. Several batteries will be needed to ensure the flight time is small enough (hopefully) to hit the HIMARS before it moves. Obviously this ties up a bunch of valuable and rare assets. The Russians have also shown a strange unwillingness to use their airborne C3 capabilities in this war. It would also require organizational skills that they theoretically have but have also not been demonstrated.