[Goose]

From what I have read the area in Poland struck would be out of range of any possible Belarussian launching sites if it was S300 in ground attack.

I am not really sure what the range of an S300 in ground attack mode may be. I did find this:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ru...e-official
The comment there is the range is 75 miles but that range was limited not by propulsion, but by guidance. I assume the INS accumulated error becomes too large to hit anything reliably beyond that point. The missile may fly much further but it will be wildly inaccurate. Given the very long ranges quoted by Russia for the S-300 in anti-air mode it seems to me nobody actually knows how far the missile can actually go :-).

I think we will all just need to wait and see what hard evidence there is of "whose missile is this?". It wouldn't surprise me at all if neither Ukraine nor Russia can tell us with any certainty what happened to every missile they launched that day. It also assumes that everybody is telling the truth to their superiors, which obviously isn't probable once it becomes clear that a scapegoat is being sought. Hopefully there is a AWACS plot of this engagement that shows the missile tracks. Failing that, it will become difficult to know whose missile it was unless it is a version that is too new for Ukraine to posses. Since Russia has captured Ukrainian assets in full working order there are no definite uniquely Ukrainian missiles. I do not think visa-versa is the case, but it may be.

[Goose]

From what I have read the area in Poland struck would be out of range of any possible Belarussian launching sites if it was S300 in ground attack.

I am not really sure what the range of an S300 in ground attack mode may be. I did find this:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ru...e-official
The comment there is the range is 75 miles but that range was limited not by propulsion, but by guidance. I assume the INS accumulated error becomes too large to hit anything reliably beyond that point. The missile may fly much further but it will be wildly inaccurate. Given the very long ranges quoted by Russia for the S-300 in anti-air mode it seems to me nobody actually knows how far the missile can actually go :-).

I think we will all just need to wait and see what hard evidence there is of "whose missile is this?". It wouldn't surprise me at all if neither Ukraine nor Russia can tell us with any certainty what happened to every missile they launched that day. It also assumes that everybody is telling the truth to their superiors, which obviously isn't probable once it becomes clear that a scapegoat is being sought. Hopefully there is a AWACS plot of this engagement that shows the missile tracks. Failing that, it will become difficult to know whose missile it was unless it is a version that is too new for Ukraine to posses. Since Russia has captured Ukrainian assets in full working order there are no definite uniquely Ukrainian missiles. I do not think visa-versa is the case, but it may be.