[Goose]

I'm looking at ISW's map of the 75k km^2 that Ukraine recaptured.  I recognize that Russia inevitably was going to lose that last 5k km^2 on the right bank of the Dnipro because the wide river made supplying troops untenable.  Other that the last 5k km^2 that Ukraine recaptured, did any of the other parts look inevitable?  Thinking back to mid-March, did we expect Ukraine to control all of the area around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy within a couple of weeks?

I would say no, we did not expect that. It came to pass because Russia couldn't "close the deal" and take Kyiv. Russia unilaterally withdrew form many areas to reorganize their troops and send them to the Donbas. It wasn't for sure that is what they would decide.

Thinking back to August, did we expect Ukraine to control all of Kharkiv Oblast within a couple of weeks?

No, we didn't. However if you look at the history on this board, two things were clear: 1) Russia didn't have enough troops to occupy all of Ukraine. As long as Ukraine was resisting, Russia would be spread too thin in places, and 2) Russia was transferring troops from the Dombas area (and anywhere else they could get them, like Georgia) to attempt a salvage of their position on the right bank of the Dnipro. It was sometimes unclear what the Russians were doing, but they were for sure weakening themselves in the north. Ukraine had been saying for months that they were coming for Kherson. It forced the Russians to decide and they decided wrong. They should have just left. Instead, they hollowed out their defenses in the Kharkiv Oblast. We didn't expect that. Russia probably didn't understand the risk they were running. Ukraine made them pay.

If not, why do we think it's unlikely for Ukraine to take more territory now?  I'm not making predictions one way or the other.  I'm just acknowledging the broad scope of what I don't know.

I think you are exactly right that there are lots of things we don't know. The main difference right now is that there are no obvious places where Russia (or Ukraine for that matter) is "out on a limb". Kherson made Kharkiv happen. The pressure was on and Russia couged it. Russia then had to give up Kherson anyway. They did get out of it in much better shape than they had any reason to expect, but they still got out. What Ukraine needs to do now IMHO is give Russia another chance to make a mistake. The question is simply how and where :-)

[Goose]

I'm looking at ISW's map of the 75k km^2 that Ukraine recaptured.  I recognize that Russia inevitably was going to lose that last 5k km^2 on the right bank of the Dnipro because the wide river made supplying troops untenable.  Other that the last 5k km^2 that Ukraine recaptured, did any of the other parts look inevitable?  Thinking back to mid-March, did we expect Ukraine to control all of the area around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy within a couple of weeks?

I would say no, we did not expect that. It came to pass because Russia couldn't "close the deal" and take Kyiv. Russia unilaterally withdrew form many areas to reorganize their troops and send them to the Donbas. It wasn't for sure that is what they would decide.

Thinking back to August, did we expect Ukraine to control all of Kharkiv Oblast within a couple of weeks?

No, we didn't. However if you look at the history on this board, two things were clear: 1) Russia didn't have enough troops to occupy all of Ukraine. As long as Ukraine was resisting, Russia would be spread too thin in places, and 2) Russia was transferring troops from the Dombas area (and anywhere else they could get them, like Georgia) to attempt a salvage of their position on the right bank of the Dnipro. It was sometimes unclear what the Russians were doing, but they were for sure weakening themselves in the north. Ukraine had been saying for months that they were coming for Kherson. It forced the Russians to decide and they decided wrong. They should have just left. Instead, they hollowed out their defenses in the Kharkiv Oblast. We didn't expect that. Russia probably didn't understand the risk they were running. Ukraine made them pay.

If not, why do we think it's unlikely for Ukraine to take more territory now?  I'm not making predictions one way or the other.  I'm just acknowledging the broad scope of what I don't know.

I think you are exactly right that there are lots of things we don't know. The main difference right now is that there are no obvious places where Russia (or Ukraine for that matter) is "out on a limb". Kherson made Kharkiv happen. The pressure was on and Russia couged it. Russia then had to give up Kherson anyway. They did get out of it in much better shape than they had any reason to expect, but they still got out. What Ukraine needs to do now IMHO is give Russia another chance to make a mistake. The question is simply how and where :-)