[Goose]

I think it's been long enough since the evacuation of Kherson for Russia, that we can draw some conclusions.  Russia started their retreat long before they announced it on TV.  It seems a lot of the soldiers were dressed as civilians and left while Russia was "evacuating civilians." Russia was able to get most of their equipment out, leaving 10's of heavy material, but nothing of of immense proportions value.  It doesn't seem many Russians were captured.  While it is still significant for Ukraine to recapture the city, Russia made the best of a very bad situation.

I agree totally with this. That said, Russia did make a major mistake when they fatally weakened their forces in the north to "defend" the right bank of the river in the south. We can't know for sure that Russia ever had adequate forces available to defend in the Kharkiv area, but after they withdrew forces to defend in the south, they certainly did not. If they had simply left the right bank in August they would be where they are today except they would still hold the territory in the north that they now do not. Bad choice. Politically understandable, but once again Russia attempted more than they could accomplish.

What happens next will be significant. Ukraine wants to keep Russia off balance and give them the chance to make more mistakes. They have to be careful. They have had success in the north. They have had success in the south. It is tempting to suggest they should now attack the center. While one might get some pushback from General Lee about doing this, it may make sense. The strip of land Russia occupies is not very wide. Cutting it breaks the "land bridge" to Crimea. Russia knows this and has deployed many of the units from Kherson to that area. They have also  apparently reinforced Mariupol significantly.  As some of the news reports have noted, the "best" Ukrainian troops are on the flanks. The implication is that to generate combat power in the center, these "better" units would need to be re-deployed. There are also the notional two tank brigades that nobody can find.

IMHO the tank brigades are probably Ukrainian maskirovka. We have been hearing about them since May. They were supposed to be the "teeth" of the southern offensive. Never showed up. FWIW I think the Kherson Oblast is Russia's hot button. If Ukraine takes that, it breaks the land bridge. It also directly threatens Crimea. The path from the center to Crimea is much longer. What I expect Ukraine to do is to do what they (and Russia) have done all along. Attack everywhere and reinforce success. This also gives Russia no easy sectors in which they can regroup and train. Unfortunately, if it finds no weak points, Ukraine is kind of stuck. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

[Goose]

I think it's been long enough since the evacuation of Kherson for Russia, that we can draw some conclusions.  Russia started their retreat long before they announced it on TV.  It seems a lot of the soldiers were dressed as civilians and left while Russia was "evacuating civilians." Russia was able to get most of their equipment out, leaving 10's of heavy material, but nothing of of immense proportions value.  It doesn't seem many Russians were captured.  While it is still significant for Ukraine to recapture the city, Russia made the best of a very bad situation.

I agree totally with this. That said, Russia did make a major mistake when they fatally weakened their forces in the north to "defend" the right bank of the river in the south. We can't know for sure that Russia ever had adequate forces available to defend in the Kharkiv area, but after they withdrew forces to defend in the south, they certainly did not. If they had simply left the right bank in August they would be where they are today except they would still hold the territory in the north that they now do not. Bad choice. Politically understandable, but once again Russia attempted more than they could accomplish.

What happens next will be significant. Ukraine wants to keep Russia off balance and give them the chance to make more mistakes. They have to be careful. They have had success in the north. They have had success in the south. It is tempting to suggest they should now attack the center. While one might get some pushback from General Lee about doing this, it may make sense. The strip of land Russia occupies is not very wide. Cutting it breaks the "land bridge" to Crimea. Russia knows this and has deployed many of the units from Kherson to that area. They have also  apparently reinforced Mariupol significantly.  As some of the news reports have noted, the "best" Ukrainian troops are on the flanks. The implication is that to generate combat power in the center, these "better" units would need to be re-deployed. There are also the notional two tank brigades that nobody can find.

IMHO the tank brigades are probably Ukrainian maskirovka. We have been hearing about them since May. They were supposed to be the "teeth" of the southern offensive. Never showed up. FWIW I think the Kherson Oblast is Russia's hot button. If Ukraine takes that, it breaks the land bridge. It also directly threatens Crimea. The path from the center to Crimea is much longer. What I expect Ukraine to do is to do what they (and Russia) have done all along. Attack everywhere and reinforce success. This also gives Russia no easy sectors in which they can regroup and train. Unfortunately, if it finds no weak points, Ukraine is kind of stuck. Let's hope that doesn't happen.