[Goose]

Ukraine also seems to have had a lot of success interdicting the sea and effectively neutralizing the Black Sea fleet. If they could effectively cut off crimea by land it could put the peninsula in a pretty untenable situation. It also puts a lot more pressure on Russia politically to threaten Crimea then the Donbas

Cutting off the water supply to Crimea is presumably within the capabilities of Ukraine at present, although it probably will require some troops on the left bank of the river for a while. That will make things harder in Crimea for sure. If Ukraine can cut of the land bridge, that makes things harder still. Supply to Crimea would then have to come via the Kerch bridge and ferries in the sea of Azov. The bridge is damaged, and ferries add delay and cost to all shipping. They also can be unavailable due to weather. Even now, Russia is running truck convoys down the M14/E105 to Crimea. Break that link and Crimea would be in a world of hurt. Ferries and a damaged bridge really can't sustain Crimea as a viable naval base and a productive, safe part of Russia.

The Black Sea fleet is however far from neutralized. They are still firing missiles into Ukraine. The frigate damaged by the USV is still operational AFAWK. The submarines are all still there, although they have moved their operating base back to their home port. The Black Sea fleet normally reduces it's operational tempo in the winter because the weather sucks, but they are still there. It also doesn't much matter, as the ferries in the sea of Azov would be beyond the attack range of Ukraine. They aren't sending ships into the Sea of Azov anytime soon.

However, I think we both agree that generating this kind of pressure on Crimea could be enough of a domestic political issue to bring Putin down. This would be especially true if it looked probable that Ukraine could recapture Crimea.

[Goose]

Ukraine also seems to have had a lot of success interdicting the sea and effectively neutralizing the Black Sea fleet. If they could effectively cut off crimea by land it could put the peninsula in a pretty untenable situation. It also puts a lot more pressure on Russia politically to threaten Crimea then the Donbas

Cutting off the water supply to Crimea is presumably within the capabilities of Ukraine at present, although it probably will require some troops on the left bank of the river for a while. That will make things harder in Crimea for sure. If Ukraine can cut of the land bridge, that makes things harder still. Supply to Crimea would then have to come via the Kerch bridge and ferries in the sea of Azov. The bridge is damaged, and ferries add delay and cost to all shipping. They also can be unavailable due to weather. Even now, Russia is running truck convoys down the M14/E105 to Crimea. Break that link and Crimea would be in a world of hurt. Ferries and a damaged bridge really can't sustain Crimea as a viable naval base and a productive, safe part of Russia.

The Black Sea fleet is however far from neutralized. They are still firing missiles into Ukraine. The frigate damaged by the USV is still operational AFAWK. The submarines are all still there, although they have moved their operating base back to their home port. The Black Sea fleet normally reduces it's operational tempo in the winter because the weather sucks, but they are still there. It also doesn't much matter, as the ferries in the sea of Azov would be beyond the attack range of Ukraine. They aren't sending ships into the Sea of Azov anytime soon.

However, I think we both agree that generating this kind of pressure on Crimea could be enough of a domestic political issue to bring Putin down. This would be especially true if it looked probable that Ukraine could recapture Crimea.