[Goose]

Wow, this is pretty big! 

[url=https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1602717399882645504?s=20&t=kiFR5dDa0XTC0CTZlDkpxA]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1602717399882645504?s=20&t=kiFR5dDa0XTC0CTZlDkpxA

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Assuming training hasn't already begun, I'd imagine it'll take months to train Ukrainians.  I wonder how many systems as well.  I think a battery costs about 1 billion dollars or so, not sure if that includes missiles.  I wonder if this could replace the future NASAMS orders, since those might take too long?  Goose, I'm sure you'd have a lot more insight.

Politically, it is very big. It sends the message that the US will send our "best" (after many months have passed). Operationally, it is pretty much a nothingburger. It will be useful, but like the fact is it is still a point defense system. It can protect the area within it's footprint from what it can see and/or from what the network tells it. In Ukraine, right now, there is no network, which means the Patriot (like the NASAMS and for that mater the S-300) has to find it's own targets. Against Kalibr and KH-101 type missiles, the same radar horizon that limits an NASAMs battery limits a Patriot battery. They can only hit what they can see. The radar horizon is the limiting factor, not the range. The Patriot will do better against stealthy missiles. So maybe a 40 km radius circle.

There is also the question of 1) how many Patriots are they sending? 2) when are they sending them? Remember they announced the NASAMS and then took MONTHS to deliver two of them. Patriots are in inventory but are not "abundant". What happens here will be important.

There is one thing the Patriot battery CAN do that right now the Ukrainians can't really do, and that is shoot down KH-22 and similar missiles. At high altitude the Patriot can see a long way and can also engage targets at high angles. It can also do this at pretty long range. This will be tactically useful.

[Goose]

Wow, this is pretty big! 

[url=https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1602717399882645504?s=20&t=kiFR5dDa0XTC0CTZlDkpxA]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1602717399882645504?s=20&t=kiFR5dDa0XTC0CTZlDkpxA

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Assuming training hasn't already begun, I'd imagine it'll take months to train Ukrainians.  I wonder how many systems as well.  I think a battery costs about 1 billion dollars or so, not sure if that includes missiles.  I wonder if this could replace the future NASAMS orders, since those might take too long?  Goose, I'm sure you'd have a lot more insight.

Politically, it is very big. It sends the message that the US will send our "best" (after many months have passed). Operationally, it is pretty much a nothingburger. It will be useful, but like the fact is it is still a point defense system. It can protect the area within it's footprint from what it can see and/or from what the network tells it. In Ukraine, right now, there is no network, which means the Patriot (like the NASAMS and for that mater the S-300) has to find it's own targets. Against Kalibr and KH-101 type missiles, the same radar horizon that limits an NASAMs battery limits a Patriot battery. They can only hit what they can see. The radar horizon is the limiting factor, not the range. The Patriot will do better against stealthy missiles. So maybe a 40 km radius circle.

There is also the question of 1) how many Patriots are they sending? 2) when are they sending them? Remember they announced the NASAMS and then took MONTHS to deliver two of them. Patriots are in inventory but are not "abundant". What happens here will be important.

There is one thing the Patriot battery CAN do that right now the Ukrainians can't really do, and that is shoot down KH-22 and similar missiles. At high altitude the Patriot can see a long way and can also engage targets at high angles. It can also do this at pretty long range. This will be tactically useful.