[Goose]

The situation in Belarus is pretty opaque, but it could be a flash point for a wider war. I think it is pretty clear that Lukashenko does not want to become involved in the war. He has let Russia use his country as a staging ground to attack Ukraine, but probably only to prevent Russia from attacking him. It is not clear what Russia wants either. It is probable that the Belarusian government would permit Russia to attack Ukraine from Belarus, but as happened the first time, they would not get full cooperation from the Belarusian population. It is also possible that Putin wants to tap in to the Belarusian army as a source of manpower.

If Russia attempts to get Belarus to supply troops for an attack on Ukraine, it is very probable it will start a civil war in Belarus. Lukashenko knows this and wants no part of it. He is using the threat of becoming "The next Ukraine" to keep his people in line. However, once it becomes clear that Lukashenko can't protect them from Russia and that Russia is calling the shots, lots of Belarusian will fight against the government. This will create a refugee flood into Poland and Lithuania immediately. If I were a rebel in Belarus, I would do my best to land some fire on Poland and Lithuania in order to get NATO involved. Both Poland and Lithuania don't want Russia on their border. Belarus under Lukashenko is bad enough. A full Russian takeover is much worse. I wouldn't be surprised if they took advantage of a Belarusian provocation to willingly get involved.

Hopefully, Putin is smart enough to realize trying to use Belarusian troops is going to cause him more trouble than it would be worth. However, it has been clear for quite a few years that Russia under Putin expects to absorb Belarus sooner or later. Putin may want sooner because his rose colored glasses see a quick fix for his personnel shortcomings. Instead it will at best produce a civil war in Belarus and possibly NATO involvement in the resulting mess. Lets hope that doesn't happen.

[Goose]

The situation in Belarus is pretty opaque, but it could be a flash point for a wider war. I think it is pretty clear that Lukashenko does not want to become involved in the war. He has let Russia use his country as a staging ground to attack Ukraine, but probably only to prevent Russia from attacking him. It is not clear what Russia wants either. It is probable that the Belarusian government would permit Russia to attack Ukraine from Belarus, but as happened the first time, they would not get full cooperation from the Belarusian population. It is also possible that Putin wants to tap in to the Belarusian army as a source of manpower.

If Russia attempts to get Belarus to supply troops for an attack on Ukraine, it is very probable it will start a civil war in Belarus. Lukashenko knows this and wants no part of it. He is using the threat of becoming "The next Ukraine" to keep his people in line. However, once it becomes clear that Lukashenko can't protect them from Russia and that Russia is calling the shots, lots of Belarusian will fight against the government. This will create a refugee flood into Poland and Lithuania immediately. If I were a rebel in Belarus, I would do my best to land some fire on Poland and Lithuania in order to get NATO involved. Both Poland and Lithuania don't want Russia on their border. Belarus under Lukashenko is bad enough. A full Russian takeover is much worse. I wouldn't be surprised if they took advantage of a Belarusian provocation to willingly get involved.

Hopefully, Putin is smart enough to realize trying to use Belarusian troops is going to cause him more trouble than it would be worth. However, it has been clear for quite a few years that Russia under Putin expects to absorb Belarus sooner or later. Putin may want sooner because his rose colored glasses see a quick fix for his personnel shortcomings. Instead it will at best produce a civil war in Belarus and possibly NATO involvement in the resulting mess. Lets hope that doesn't happen.