https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraines-cat-...45555.html
It is clear that the anti-cruise missile battle is going to be key to the outcome of this war. Ukraine and the West has to assume that Russia will manage to obtain and continue to build such weapons. While we should do everything possible to make that impossible, we can't assume success. The article points out how the Russians are using terrain masking to make interception of these missiles difficult. The air defense system has to be in the right place or it simply will never "see" the missiles, even if it knows they are there by other sources. That is an immutable fact. Ground based radar is limited by the radar horizon.
As predicted, the two NASAMS aren't exactly changing the game. Ukraine needs lots of them, and it seems unlikely that they will get them. Norway has quite a few in storage, but they probably are obsolete models with unknown technical problems. That is a reasonable deduction based on the fact the two we sent had to be "new built". We aren't exactly expediting the build of the additional ones we promised Ukraine either it seems.
The air force of the Ukraine has very limited (if any) look-down shoot down capability. This is consistent with the known limitations of the vintage Soviet equipment they have. This capability was a known NATO advantage during the cold war. In order to defend itself against ground-hugging attacks by either cruise missiles or Russian aircraft, Ukraine needs this capability. Ground based systems can do this only if they are controlled from the air, where the radar horizon is much larger. The Mainstay can supposedly do this, but we haven't seen it do so on the Russian side. Ukraine has no such capability and it is probably impossible to develop it during a war.
Given these facts, IMO the US should immediately provide "lots" of F-16 aircraft. They do have the look-down shoot down capability. F-15s would arguable be better but they have a larger maintenance footprint. This would be a strictly defensive action by the US to allow Ukraine to interdict the Russian cruise missiles aimed at it's infrastructure and entirely proportional to the Russian's continued use of the cruise missiles. Tell Putin if he agrees no more missiles, Ukraine doesn't get this capability. Otherwise, we will supply it.
It is clear that the anti-cruise missile battle is going to be key to the outcome of this war. Ukraine and the West has to assume that Russia will manage to obtain and continue to build such weapons. While we should do everything possible to make that impossible, we can't assume success. The article points out how the Russians are using terrain masking to make interception of these missiles difficult. The air defense system has to be in the right place or it simply will never "see" the missiles, even if it knows they are there by other sources. That is an immutable fact. Ground based radar is limited by the radar horizon.
As predicted, the two NASAMS aren't exactly changing the game. Ukraine needs lots of them, and it seems unlikely that they will get them. Norway has quite a few in storage, but they probably are obsolete models with unknown technical problems. That is a reasonable deduction based on the fact the two we sent had to be "new built". We aren't exactly expediting the build of the additional ones we promised Ukraine either it seems.
The air force of the Ukraine has very limited (if any) look-down shoot down capability. This is consistent with the known limitations of the vintage Soviet equipment they have. This capability was a known NATO advantage during the cold war. In order to defend itself against ground-hugging attacks by either cruise missiles or Russian aircraft, Ukraine needs this capability. Ground based systems can do this only if they are controlled from the air, where the radar horizon is much larger. The Mainstay can supposedly do this, but we haven't seen it do so on the Russian side. Ukraine has no such capability and it is probably impossible to develop it during a war.
Given these facts, IMO the US should immediately provide "lots" of F-16 aircraft. They do have the look-down shoot down capability. F-15s would arguable be better but they have a larger maintenance footprint. This would be a strictly defensive action by the US to allow Ukraine to interdict the Russian cruise missiles aimed at it's infrastructure and entirely proportional to the Russian's continued use of the cruise missiles. Tell Putin if he agrees no more missiles, Ukraine doesn't get this capability. Otherwise, we will supply it.