[Goose]

I’m not convinced the F-16 demand from Turkey is such a problem. If Turkey is an important ally, then we should be happy to sell them some fighter jets. Win-win proposition. And if that’s the condition for Nordic accession, then it’s 4 wins. We’ll see if there’s more to the deal. It might be in Erdogan’s interest to lock up the sale and not try to hold out for so much that it drags on beyond the election

As I said, Erdogan fully expects this to be wrapped up well before the election. From his point of view it is a "done deal", and if we don't come through it will be a political "black eye" for him. He won't be at all happy in that case and NATO will undoubtedly not get his cooperation. The only questions remaining are 1) what else he is going to try and extract for the "yes" vote, and 2) will the failure of Sweden to extradite the people Erdogan wants become such a political red line to him that he won't go along until he gets what he wants? Before Sweden's supreme court decision, I think there was almost no chance Erdogan would be a problem. If the Swedes had just stalled until after the election, IMO it would have worked. They didn't, and that could be an issue that takes this thing off the rails.

Most of Europe doesn't care at all one way or the other about the F-16s. The one country that does is Greece, and nothing anybody else says or does will change that. The real problem is the US congress. Several "important" members don't like Erdogan's behavior and want to "punish" him. This is understandable but also problematic in the current situation. The administration may have to spend a lot of political capital to either win a vote in congress or to do it unilaterally. Lets hope something can be worked out.

[Goose]

I’m not convinced the F-16 demand from Turkey is such a problem. If Turkey is an important ally, then we should be happy to sell them some fighter jets. Win-win proposition. And if that’s the condition for Nordic accession, then it’s 4 wins. We’ll see if there’s more to the deal. It might be in Erdogan’s interest to lock up the sale and not try to hold out for so much that it drags on beyond the election

As I said, Erdogan fully expects this to be wrapped up well before the election. From his point of view it is a "done deal", and if we don't come through it will be a political "black eye" for him. He won't be at all happy in that case and NATO will undoubtedly not get his cooperation. The only questions remaining are 1) what else he is going to try and extract for the "yes" vote, and 2) will the failure of Sweden to extradite the people Erdogan wants become such a political red line to him that he won't go along until he gets what he wants? Before Sweden's supreme court decision, I think there was almost no chance Erdogan would be a problem. If the Swedes had just stalled until after the election, IMO it would have worked. They didn't, and that could be an issue that takes this thing off the rails.

Most of Europe doesn't care at all one way or the other about the F-16s. The one country that does is Greece, and nothing anybody else says or does will change that. The real problem is the US congress. Several "important" members don't like Erdogan's behavior and want to "punish" him. This is understandable but also problematic in the current situation. The administration may have to spend a lot of political capital to either win a vote in congress or to do it unilaterally. Lets hope something can be worked out.