[BostonCard]

Poland has indeed gone on a buying spree and notionally has over 1K tanks on the way. The purchase from the Koreans is arriving/has arrived and will be operational sometime in the near future. The first order was for Abrams M1A2s will not arrive until 2025. The second order is for M1A1s that will arrive "this year". These are presumably refurbished ex US tanks that were not upgraded. All such orders obviously will not achieve IOC immediately.

So, while Poland has lots of tanks on the way, they will certainly have a window where they arguably need their "old" tanks to function as a deterrent to Russia. That said, it seems the latest order for M1A1s is probably intended to backfill for tanks sent to Ukraine. Poland has already sent T-72s. How many Leopards they will be willing to part with is obviously up to them. They have their own political calculus to deal with. IMO they will send a substantial number, perhaps 50 all told. I would be surprised if it were more, and it could be less. These numbers, plus the ones promised by other nations, will be substantial. All Germany has to do is not object. Let's hope they can at least do that.

Germany is hinting that it won't oppose Poland sending tanks:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-tan...e-meeting/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ger...023-01-23/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/202...s-ukraine/

Specifically, it quotes German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock as saying, "if we were asked, we would not stand in the way."

But also, Poland is willing to send the tanks even if Germany says no.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-new...tle-tanks/

BC

[BostonCard]

Poland has indeed gone on a buying spree and notionally has over 1K tanks on the way. The purchase from the Koreans is arriving/has arrived and will be operational sometime in the near future. The first order was for Abrams M1A2s will not arrive until 2025. The second order is for M1A1s that will arrive "this year". These are presumably refurbished ex US tanks that were not upgraded. All such orders obviously will not achieve IOC immediately.

So, while Poland has lots of tanks on the way, they will certainly have a window where they arguably need their "old" tanks to function as a deterrent to Russia. That said, it seems the latest order for M1A1s is probably intended to backfill for tanks sent to Ukraine. Poland has already sent T-72s. How many Leopards they will be willing to part with is obviously up to them. They have their own political calculus to deal with. IMO they will send a substantial number, perhaps 50 all told. I would be surprised if it were more, and it could be less. These numbers, plus the ones promised by other nations, will be substantial. All Germany has to do is not object. Let's hope they can at least do that.

Germany is hinting that it won't oppose Poland sending tanks:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-tan...e-meeting/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ger...023-01-23/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/202...s-ukraine/

Specifically, it quotes German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock as saying, "if we were asked, we would not stand in the way."

But also, Poland is willing to send the tanks even if Germany says no.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-new...tle-tanks/

BC