01-25-2023, 04:39 PM
(01-25-2023, 01:38 PM)fullmetal Wrote: A talking head on NPR opined that the logistics and training lead times required mean that Ukraine won't be able to deploy the Abrams in time for a spring offensive, which makes sense. Does the same apply to the Leopards, or are those more familiar to the AFU?
(01-25-2023, 02:40 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: We keep hearing about Ukraine’s anticipated springtime offensive. Obviously, the sooner Ukraine retakes it’s territory, the better. But from a tactical perspective, is there any reason it’s better for Ukraine to attack in April than say July? Is it better tactics, on balance, to take the fight to Russia at a time and place of Ukraine’s choosing? Or could Ukraine do better, from a tactical perspective, by laying in wait for Russia’s anticipated offensive with the newly mobilized troops?It is essentially impossible for Ukraine to effectively use the tanks/IFVs it will be getting for a "spring" offensive. We aren't even really sure when they will be getting some of them and how many. That doesn't mean there won't be an offensive, but it does mean Ukraine can't rely on these new capabilities to execute it.
Normally, one prefers to choose when and where to fight and make your opponent respond to your actions. This means an attack/offensive. Your opponent is trying to do the same. If by some good fortune your opponent chooses a place and time that suits you better than any offensive move does, fighting a defensive battle can be the better choice. Gettysburg comes to mind.
The problem in Ukraine is that these battles can become months long artillery duels where masses of untrained Russian infantry forces the Ukrainians to defend in a way that costs Ukraine a lot of casualties too. In the end, Russia prevails. Ukraine can only take so much of this. That is one reason Ukraine wants the tanks, so that they can start an aggressive battle and have a chance of winning it. Ukraine is running out of tank ammunition for it's own T-72s, so eventually they can't be used. Ukraine wants a faster-moving aggressive war, just like the West does. They have to be trained well enough to execute it however, and for sure they aren't yet. Russia OTOH is undoubtedly planning to increase it's supply of cannon fodder and Ukraine needs to weather this attempt.
