[Goose]

A pretty well-sourced article on the possibility of supplying F-16s and other military equipment: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28...ce=Twitter

Spoiler, Goose is going to be upset that, apparently, training won’t start until a decision is made to supply the jets.

Goose is too not surprised to be upset. The idea of preparing contingent plans seems to be beyond everyone's pay grade. I guess it could be argued that training pilots would create momentum to supply planes, which is undoubtedly true. However, weighing that against the problem of making a decision, publicizing it, training for a year (which gives Russia plenty of time to react/prepare), and then deploying it, I think it is obvious starting the training early is the "right way to go". The way things are today, the war could easily be over before a plane is delivered.

It appears that almost everybody has finally realized that time is NOT on Ukraine's side. https://news.yahoo.com/zelenskyy-russia-...p_catchall Their economy is a shambles, their cities are attacked by missiles constantly, and Russia seems willing to lose an arbitrarily large number of it's citizens to "win" this conflict. Ukraine can win, but they can't take 5 years to do it. IMO they can't take 3 years to do it, but there are a lot of variables in that assessment. For months "everybody" has been estimating that Russia is "almost" out of missiles and "almost" out of artillery ammunition. Russia isn't going to run out of artillery ammunition. They may be firing stuff that won't go of half the time, but 50% of a big number is still a big number. They are still building missiles and are now using newer S-400 vintage missiles as ground attack weapons. It is a poor weapon for this application, and very expensive for what it does. However, if you have thousands of them, which Russia does, that isn't a problem. Throw in a few KH-22s for a good measure. This bombardment  isn't going to stop. It may ebb and flow, but Russia is doing everything it can to make sure it continues.

From the beginning, Ukraine has operated under the handicap that nobody realistically believes Ukraine can invade Russia and dictate terms in the Kremlin. This war can only end when Russia stops fighting, and Ukraine (even with NATO "help") can't compel them to stop fighting. NATO has applied economic sanctions to "compel" Russia to stop fighting. Russia applies "sanctions" to Ukraine daily at mach 3+. NATO has hopes that the Russian nation will in some form realize this war just isn't worth it. It is unclear this will ever happen, and even if it would (eventually) Ukraine has to endure that long. For that reason, Ukraine needs to inflict a defeat on Russia that has the potential to make it obvious to everybody, even in a tightly controlled society, that they are going to suffer grievous losses if they continue this war. Take back Crimea. Russia can't ignore that, and that is at least something Ukraine can possibly do.

As food for thought on this subject, consider that Russia can fire older S-300 missiles into Ukraine from occupied territory in Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia proper with impunity. No existing Ukrainian anti-missile defense can even track these missiles, let alone engage them. Patriots can, but the number of batteries available isn't going to be near enough to "plug all the holes". NASAMS doesn't have the range and it's missiles are too slow unless they are sitting on the target. Even if the Patriots shoot down all the missiles today, Russia can do it again tomorrow. If the US allowed Ukraine to fire HIMARS into Russia proper, the S-300 missiles would still be out of range. Give them ATACMS and let them fire it into Russia/Belarus (fat chance), they can destroy the S-300 launchers (if they can target them). Fine, but the S-400 missiles go further and therefore the launchers are out of even ATACMS range.

Please don't take this screed as pessimistic. The point is that 1) Ukraine can't physically compel Russia to stop firing missiles into it's territory and 2) such missiles make it impossible to have a "normal" economy or a "safe" existence. These facts alone mean that the war stops only when Russia decides to quit. How can Ukraine make that happen? The only way I see is for Ukraine to take back Crimea, which Russia views as an "essential" possession. That has a good chance at making Russia at least pause for a few years this insanity.

[Goose]

A pretty well-sourced article on the possibility of supplying F-16s and other military equipment: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28...ce=Twitter

Spoiler, Goose is going to be upset that, apparently, training won’t start until a decision is made to supply the jets.

Goose is too not surprised to be upset. The idea of preparing contingent plans seems to be beyond everyone's pay grade. I guess it could be argued that training pilots would create momentum to supply planes, which is undoubtedly true. However, weighing that against the problem of making a decision, publicizing it, training for a year (which gives Russia plenty of time to react/prepare), and then deploying it, I think it is obvious starting the training early is the "right way to go". The way things are today, the war could easily be over before a plane is delivered.

It appears that almost everybody has finally realized that time is NOT on Ukraine's side. https://news.yahoo.com/zelenskyy-russia-...p_catchall Their economy is a shambles, their cities are attacked by missiles constantly, and Russia seems willing to lose an arbitrarily large number of it's citizens to "win" this conflict. Ukraine can win, but they can't take 5 years to do it. IMO they can't take 3 years to do it, but there are a lot of variables in that assessment. For months "everybody" has been estimating that Russia is "almost" out of missiles and "almost" out of artillery ammunition. Russia isn't going to run out of artillery ammunition. They may be firing stuff that won't go of half the time, but 50% of a big number is still a big number. They are still building missiles and are now using newer S-400 vintage missiles as ground attack weapons. It is a poor weapon for this application, and very expensive for what it does. However, if you have thousands of them, which Russia does, that isn't a problem. Throw in a few KH-22s for a good measure. This bombardment  isn't going to stop. It may ebb and flow, but Russia is doing everything it can to make sure it continues.

From the beginning, Ukraine has operated under the handicap that nobody realistically believes Ukraine can invade Russia and dictate terms in the Kremlin. This war can only end when Russia stops fighting, and Ukraine (even with NATO "help") can't compel them to stop fighting. NATO has applied economic sanctions to "compel" Russia to stop fighting. Russia applies "sanctions" to Ukraine daily at mach 3+. NATO has hopes that the Russian nation will in some form realize this war just isn't worth it. It is unclear this will ever happen, and even if it would (eventually) Ukraine has to endure that long. For that reason, Ukraine needs to inflict a defeat on Russia that has the potential to make it obvious to everybody, even in a tightly controlled society, that they are going to suffer grievous losses if they continue this war. Take back Crimea. Russia can't ignore that, and that is at least something Ukraine can possibly do.

As food for thought on this subject, consider that Russia can fire older S-300 missiles into Ukraine from occupied territory in Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia proper with impunity. No existing Ukrainian anti-missile defense can even track these missiles, let alone engage them. Patriots can, but the number of batteries available isn't going to be near enough to "plug all the holes". NASAMS doesn't have the range and it's missiles are too slow unless they are sitting on the target. Even if the Patriots shoot down all the missiles today, Russia can do it again tomorrow. If the US allowed Ukraine to fire HIMARS into Russia proper, the S-300 missiles would still be out of range. Give them ATACMS and let them fire it into Russia/Belarus (fat chance), they can destroy the S-300 launchers (if they can target them). Fine, but the S-400 missiles go further and therefore the launchers are out of even ATACMS range.

Please don't take this screed as pessimistic. The point is that 1) Ukraine can't physically compel Russia to stop firing missiles into it's territory and 2) such missiles make it impossible to have a "normal" economy or a "safe" existence. These facts alone mean that the war stops only when Russia decides to quit. How can Ukraine make that happen? The only way I see is for Ukraine to take back Crimea, which Russia views as an "essential" possession. That has a good chance at making Russia at least pause for a few years this insanity.