02-01-2023, 09:36 AM
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA429075.pdf
This document may require a bit more time than most readers want to commit, but it does analyze some important questions. The most important question is how can Ukraine mount a SEAD effort with very limited air force capability. The answer is that ATACMS can pretty much do the job on targets within it's range. The US used a JSTARS platform (as well as I am sure other platforms not mentioned in the document) to "find" the "time sensitive targets" and kill them. ATACMS has the range to kill all the BUKs, S-300s and S-400s in Crimea and the rest of occupied Ukraine. Obviously shorter range systems are vulnerable as well. As the paper point out, fixed wing aircraft have some advantages in destroying enemy air defenses (as well as some significant relative disadvantages). Ukraine doesn't have enough assets to even contemplate a serious large-scale SEAD operation with fixed wing aircraft. With ATACMS they could do a credible job and open the sky above 10k ft to at least some of their aircraft. That makes JDAM attacks on virtually everything possible with relatively little risk to the attacking aircraft. If that point is reached, Russia is totally screwed.
Russia could still put up an umbrella over most of Donbas using S-400 type systems located in Russia proper, which are presumably still "off limits" even if Ukraine gets ATACMS. The effectiveness of this would be limited by bad geometry in many cases, and long range intercepts are always "harder". They can also use fighter aircraft to kill Ukrainian attack aircraft in Donbas. However, the Russian aircraft will be vulnerable to Ukrainian missile systems in that case. Russia probably does not have enough TBMs (Iskanders mostly) available to go after Ukrainian air defense or they would have already done it.
Obviously, there are "issues". First, Ukraine would need to have ATACMS. Second, they would need to "find" the targets. The US probably doesn't want to get in the business of directly giving them that data, and this data needs to be "near real time" (10s of minutes, not days). There are older assets that both the US (RC-12s of various vintages) and the EU have that can be given to Ukraine to do this job. Ukraine already has the people to do it, just no platforms any more. Two or three non-combat aircraft that we don't need anymore wouldn't even move the $ meter, and Russia can't bitch because they aren't even armed! Ukraine may not "own" the airspace above 10k ft over their country after this effort is made, but the could assuredly use it safely at least some of the time. They can also find and kill the GPS jammers protecting high value target areas :-). IFF will remain a problem until Ukraine isn't flying Soviet era aircraft, but that affects both sides more or less equally.
This document may require a bit more time than most readers want to commit, but it does analyze some important questions. The most important question is how can Ukraine mount a SEAD effort with very limited air force capability. The answer is that ATACMS can pretty much do the job on targets within it's range. The US used a JSTARS platform (as well as I am sure other platforms not mentioned in the document) to "find" the "time sensitive targets" and kill them. ATACMS has the range to kill all the BUKs, S-300s and S-400s in Crimea and the rest of occupied Ukraine. Obviously shorter range systems are vulnerable as well. As the paper point out, fixed wing aircraft have some advantages in destroying enemy air defenses (as well as some significant relative disadvantages). Ukraine doesn't have enough assets to even contemplate a serious large-scale SEAD operation with fixed wing aircraft. With ATACMS they could do a credible job and open the sky above 10k ft to at least some of their aircraft. That makes JDAM attacks on virtually everything possible with relatively little risk to the attacking aircraft. If that point is reached, Russia is totally screwed.
Russia could still put up an umbrella over most of Donbas using S-400 type systems located in Russia proper, which are presumably still "off limits" even if Ukraine gets ATACMS. The effectiveness of this would be limited by bad geometry in many cases, and long range intercepts are always "harder". They can also use fighter aircraft to kill Ukrainian attack aircraft in Donbas. However, the Russian aircraft will be vulnerable to Ukrainian missile systems in that case. Russia probably does not have enough TBMs (Iskanders mostly) available to go after Ukrainian air defense or they would have already done it.
Obviously, there are "issues". First, Ukraine would need to have ATACMS. Second, they would need to "find" the targets. The US probably doesn't want to get in the business of directly giving them that data, and this data needs to be "near real time" (10s of minutes, not days). There are older assets that both the US (RC-12s of various vintages) and the EU have that can be given to Ukraine to do this job. Ukraine already has the people to do it, just no platforms any more. Two or three non-combat aircraft that we don't need anymore wouldn't even move the $ meter, and Russia can't bitch because they aren't even armed! Ukraine may not "own" the airspace above 10k ft over their country after this effort is made, but the could assuredly use it safely at least some of the time. They can also find and kill the GPS jammers protecting high value target areas :-). IFF will remain a problem until Ukraine isn't flying Soviet era aircraft, but that affects both sides more or less equally.