[Goose]

I don't get this idea that time is not on Ukraine's side.



I agree that their economy has been totally destroyed.  GDP down ~50% or so.  But as long as the West is willing to finance the war and provide some form of humanitarian aid they can fight on.  And what are their options?  They can try for peace but whatever Russia agrees to they won't let NATO in so you just get another war in a couple of years.  And it will be hard to get the west to help them rebuild in that scenario.  And given the relatively low price tag I see no signs that the West isn't willing to finance this thing for a long time.  Maybe I am wrong in that but it seems like the only limiting factor for Ukraine.

I think there are two limiting factors for Ukraine. One is that eventually they will have suffered so much economic and material damage that they can't effectively use the military hardware they have/can get. They will of course try to fight on but eventually Russia can literally "win" the war and occupy the country. Ukraine's options in that case are exactly none. Right now, the western part of Ukraine still functions, and the Ukrainian railroads still function. The Russians blowing up the power grid piece by piece will eventually bring the railroads to a halt. Ukraine simply can't repair it fast enough because the required quantity of replacement equipment simply doesn't exist. If the major cities are not functional because there is no power their economic activity will fall still further. The economic aid provided Ukraine to this point, while generous, is inadequate to compensate for the destruction, and the destruction is ongoing. It won't stop unless Russia becomes physically unable to continue delivering it or quits for some other reason. As of now, neither appear likely. Under those conditions, Ukraine will just get weaker militarily. Eventually they will be unable to stop the Russians. Germany didn't "quit" in WWII, but eventually they just didn't have the economic or political ability to continue.

The second limiting factor is how much political stability can persist in Ukraine as losses mount. Zelenskyy has done a great job, but eventually he, like Lincoln, will face a lot of people who don't like how he is running the war. At best, this political infighting will force Zelenskyy to run the war differently than he "should". It may result in negotiations or treachery by some part of the population. Ukraine already has a significant minority that actually wants Russia to win. There are a whole lot of other people who just want the war to stop. That second group may decide that being part of Russia is better than being part of a frozen war or a war they are losing.

OTOH, the Russian economy is also in the tank.  GDP is down ~20%  And they have to finance this war themselves with no external help.  Militarily they have also been on a long losing streak since the first few weeks on the war.  And Russia has some pretty clear options.  They can just retreat to the pre-war lines.

Putin can't retreat and survive. It is also unclear that his replacement wouldn't be even more of a "hawk" than Putin is. While it is arguable that the Russian population won't put up with this situation forever, so far they aren't showing any signs they have the will to change it. Russia has the advantage that while it is suffering economic damage it is not having it's infrastructure systematically reduced to rubble. Ukraine is suffering that damage. Russia is also a totalitarian state so political pressure, while it does exist, is not nearly as much of an issue as it is in Ukraine.

The worst case for Russia is they start to lose Crimea and the Dombass and the west lets Ukraine take those back.  And they might.

Indeed Ukraine might, and I don't think they need the west's permission. They just need to do it while they can still use their railroads to move the tanks and while there is enough cohesion to organize the effort. I think that is the way to victory. If Ukraine can take back Crimea I think that will make Russia quit the war. The political fallout would be too much for the hawks to overcome. The Donbas is much tougher, and while I think Ukraine maybe could do it, start with Crimea :-). If Ukraine can't do this, Russia will eventually grind them down with missiles against civilian infrastructure. There are those that say Russia can't do that forever, but so far their predictions have been incorrect. I wouldn't bet that Russia will "run out" of missiles. They will do what it takes to keep making them, and Putin doesn't care how many of his troops die while this process goes on.



Victory in Crimea is a much better scenario :-)

[Goose]

I don't get this idea that time is not on Ukraine's side.



I agree that their economy has been totally destroyed.  GDP down ~50% or so.  But as long as the West is willing to finance the war and provide some form of humanitarian aid they can fight on.  And what are their options?  They can try for peace but whatever Russia agrees to they won't let NATO in so you just get another war in a couple of years.  And it will be hard to get the west to help them rebuild in that scenario.  And given the relatively low price tag I see no signs that the West isn't willing to finance this thing for a long time.  Maybe I am wrong in that but it seems like the only limiting factor for Ukraine.

I think there are two limiting factors for Ukraine. One is that eventually they will have suffered so much economic and material damage that they can't effectively use the military hardware they have/can get. They will of course try to fight on but eventually Russia can literally "win" the war and occupy the country. Ukraine's options in that case are exactly none. Right now, the western part of Ukraine still functions, and the Ukrainian railroads still function. The Russians blowing up the power grid piece by piece will eventually bring the railroads to a halt. Ukraine simply can't repair it fast enough because the required quantity of replacement equipment simply doesn't exist. If the major cities are not functional because there is no power their economic activity will fall still further. The economic aid provided Ukraine to this point, while generous, is inadequate to compensate for the destruction, and the destruction is ongoing. It won't stop unless Russia becomes physically unable to continue delivering it or quits for some other reason. As of now, neither appear likely. Under those conditions, Ukraine will just get weaker militarily. Eventually they will be unable to stop the Russians. Germany didn't "quit" in WWII, but eventually they just didn't have the economic or political ability to continue.

The second limiting factor is how much political stability can persist in Ukraine as losses mount. Zelenskyy has done a great job, but eventually he, like Lincoln, will face a lot of people who don't like how he is running the war. At best, this political infighting will force Zelenskyy to run the war differently than he "should". It may result in negotiations or treachery by some part of the population. Ukraine already has a significant minority that actually wants Russia to win. There are a whole lot of other people who just want the war to stop. That second group may decide that being part of Russia is better than being part of a frozen war or a war they are losing.

OTOH, the Russian economy is also in the tank.  GDP is down ~20%  And they have to finance this war themselves with no external help.  Militarily they have also been on a long losing streak since the first few weeks on the war.  And Russia has some pretty clear options.  They can just retreat to the pre-war lines.

Putin can't retreat and survive. It is also unclear that his replacement wouldn't be even more of a "hawk" than Putin is. While it is arguable that the Russian population won't put up with this situation forever, so far they aren't showing any signs they have the will to change it. Russia has the advantage that while it is suffering economic damage it is not having it's infrastructure systematically reduced to rubble. Ukraine is suffering that damage. Russia is also a totalitarian state so political pressure, while it does exist, is not nearly as much of an issue as it is in Ukraine.

The worst case for Russia is they start to lose Crimea and the Dombass and the west lets Ukraine take those back.  And they might.

Indeed Ukraine might, and I don't think they need the west's permission. They just need to do it while they can still use their railroads to move the tanks and while there is enough cohesion to organize the effort. I think that is the way to victory. If Ukraine can take back Crimea I think that will make Russia quit the war. The political fallout would be too much for the hawks to overcome. The Donbas is much tougher, and while I think Ukraine maybe could do it, start with Crimea :-). If Ukraine can't do this, Russia will eventually grind them down with missiles against civilian infrastructure. There are those that say Russia can't do that forever, but so far their predictions have been incorrect. I wouldn't bet that Russia will "run out" of missiles. They will do what it takes to keep making them, and Putin doesn't care how many of his troops die while this process goes on.



Victory in Crimea is a much better scenario :-)