[Goose]

I'd say modal outcome is Ukraine regains territory to pre 2022 invasion borders and Putin stays in power.

This could indeed happen. However, I believe that if Ukraine can achieve this result they will press very hard to eliminate any Russian control in Donbas. The DPR and the LPR becoming part of Russia is a recipe for ongoing conflict. Of course Ukraine could be pressured by their "allies" to give in on this, but if things are going that well for Ukraine, I doubt anybody is going to try and stop them from that outcome. I do however disagree that Putin could survive such an outcome. It would be such an obvious and massive failure that there would be no way he could "spin" his way out of it. He may be around long enough to sign the treaty (and take the blame), but not long after that. Hopefully we will all soon get to find out.

Russia has already lost half of all their tanks, including the shitty old ones they've been refurbishing. And they aren't making more very quickly. At a certain point Russian combat power will be exhausted, and I'm pretty certain it will be before Ukraine loses the will to fight.i

I totally agree with this statement. However it is must be recognized that while Ukraine may still have the will to fight their ability to do so can be exhausted too, and possibly before Russia's is. It isn't just the supply of weapons. It is the ability of an organized country to act on a large scale. Obviously if Russia overruns lots of Ukraine they will have trouble doing that. It is also true that the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure can preclude effective resistance.

Like Afghanistan for Russia or Vietnam for the US, eventually even a stronger nation will decide they've had enough and just leave.

That is the only way this war can end with a "Ukraine" remaining. We just have to figure out how to make Russia realize that  it just isn't worth it. So far we haven't done it.

Ukraine retaking Crimea and Putin getting ousted would be upside scenario, but less likely.

I am (as you undoubtedly know :-) of the opinion that the odds of Russia deciding it just isn't worth it are pretty low as long as Putin is in a "net positive" position territory wise. He and his country can look at it as "only a matter of time", something Russia is historically good at doing. Eventually maybe that would stop working, but I don't think Ukraine can tolerate say five more years of intense war. Only by converting the situation to a clearly "net negative" can the Russian body politic be pushed/shocked into somewhat rapidly making a decision that it "obviously" isn't worth it.

Russia holding onto the territory they presently hold possible but I think it's extremely unlikely they gain much more and hold it until hostilities end.

I think this is an unlikely outcome. Ukraine would be in a position like Czechoslovakia after Munich, only worse. They would have lost their access to the Sea of Azov and would be 2/3 surrounded by Russia. Economically it would also be a serious blow to a country that was already the poorest per capita in Europe. I think Ukraine would keep fighting at that point, as they undoubtedly would believe quitting on these terms just isn't viable.

[Goose]

I'd say modal outcome is Ukraine regains territory to pre 2022 invasion borders and Putin stays in power.

This could indeed happen. However, I believe that if Ukraine can achieve this result they will press very hard to eliminate any Russian control in Donbas. The DPR and the LPR becoming part of Russia is a recipe for ongoing conflict. Of course Ukraine could be pressured by their "allies" to give in on this, but if things are going that well for Ukraine, I doubt anybody is going to try and stop them from that outcome. I do however disagree that Putin could survive such an outcome. It would be such an obvious and massive failure that there would be no way he could "spin" his way out of it. He may be around long enough to sign the treaty (and take the blame), but not long after that. Hopefully we will all soon get to find out.

Russia has already lost half of all their tanks, including the shitty old ones they've been refurbishing. And they aren't making more very quickly. At a certain point Russian combat power will be exhausted, and I'm pretty certain it will be before Ukraine loses the will to fight.i

I totally agree with this statement. However it is must be recognized that while Ukraine may still have the will to fight their ability to do so can be exhausted too, and possibly before Russia's is. It isn't just the supply of weapons. It is the ability of an organized country to act on a large scale. Obviously if Russia overruns lots of Ukraine they will have trouble doing that. It is also true that the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure can preclude effective resistance.

Like Afghanistan for Russia or Vietnam for the US, eventually even a stronger nation will decide they've had enough and just leave.

That is the only way this war can end with a "Ukraine" remaining. We just have to figure out how to make Russia realize that  it just isn't worth it. So far we haven't done it.

Ukraine retaking Crimea and Putin getting ousted would be upside scenario, but less likely.

I am (as you undoubtedly know :-) of the opinion that the odds of Russia deciding it just isn't worth it are pretty low as long as Putin is in a "net positive" position territory wise. He and his country can look at it as "only a matter of time", something Russia is historically good at doing. Eventually maybe that would stop working, but I don't think Ukraine can tolerate say five more years of intense war. Only by converting the situation to a clearly "net negative" can the Russian body politic be pushed/shocked into somewhat rapidly making a decision that it "obviously" isn't worth it.

Russia holding onto the territory they presently hold possible but I think it's extremely unlikely they gain much more and hold it until hostilities end.

I think this is an unlikely outcome. Ukraine would be in a position like Czechoslovakia after Munich, only worse. They would have lost their access to the Sea of Azov and would be 2/3 surrounded by Russia. Economically it would also be a serious blow to a country that was already the poorest per capita in Europe. I think Ukraine would keep fighting at that point, as they undoubtedly would believe quitting on these terms just isn't viable.