[Goose]

It seems to me that this portends the one thing that could reverse fortunes in the war, if it came to pass:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/19/world...raine.html

Yet, new warnings by U.S. officials that China may be preparing to give weapons and ammunition to Russia ‌for its war on Ukraine portend the worst of the old Cold War....

Warnings to China from Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state — made in multiple settings on Saturday and Sunday, including on television — revealed that the Biden administration believes Beijing is close to crossing the line. And the fact Mr. Blinken spoke out publicly shows the desperation of the United States as it tries to dissuade Mr. Xi and his aides from doing so.

Not only would China's involvement dramatically shift the balance of power in the armaments race, it would create a bipolar world in a way that we have not seen since early in the Cold War.  And of course it would have enormous economic consequences.

Nothing like one oppressive dictator helping another in need.  If this happens, Ukraine will be a sideshow compared with the growing US/China cold war that will ensue and which has already been becoming more likely.  Just a matter of time before Taiwan, in that case.

I think the response from the US and the rest of the world depends a lot on what China actually does. If it sends "a few" kinetic items that make no real difference in the correlation of forces, the West will probably in essence let it go. They might generate some equally inconsequential "sanctions" but it won't change much else. If, OTOH China sends material of a character and quantity that does make a difference, the US/China cold war scenario will become real.

IMO China probably won't do this, at least not from the start. They have too much to lose and Russia is not their friend. It is rather their competitor. China will help Russia only in a way that helps China relative to Russia. China might start small and increase the assistance to Russia if we do nothing. The US and the rest of the world has to look out for this and make it very clear what is not "OK". China may be playing a complex double or triple game here to get concessions from both Russia and the US. We need to realize this and act accordingly.

[Goose]

It seems to me that this portends the one thing that could reverse fortunes in the war, if it came to pass:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/19/world...raine.html

Yet, new warnings by U.S. officials that China may be preparing to give weapons and ammunition to Russia ‌for its war on Ukraine portend the worst of the old Cold War....

Warnings to China from Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state — made in multiple settings on Saturday and Sunday, including on television — revealed that the Biden administration believes Beijing is close to crossing the line. And the fact Mr. Blinken spoke out publicly shows the desperation of the United States as it tries to dissuade Mr. Xi and his aides from doing so.

Not only would China's involvement dramatically shift the balance of power in the armaments race, it would create a bipolar world in a way that we have not seen since early in the Cold War.  And of course it would have enormous economic consequences.

Nothing like one oppressive dictator helping another in need.  If this happens, Ukraine will be a sideshow compared with the growing US/China cold war that will ensue and which has already been becoming more likely.  Just a matter of time before Taiwan, in that case.

I think the response from the US and the rest of the world depends a lot on what China actually does. If it sends "a few" kinetic items that make no real difference in the correlation of forces, the West will probably in essence let it go. They might generate some equally inconsequential "sanctions" but it won't change much else. If, OTOH China sends material of a character and quantity that does make a difference, the US/China cold war scenario will become real.

IMO China probably won't do this, at least not from the start. They have too much to lose and Russia is not their friend. It is rather their competitor. China will help Russia only in a way that helps China relative to Russia. China might start small and increase the assistance to Russia if we do nothing. The US and the rest of the world has to look out for this and make it very clear what is not "OK". China may be playing a complex double or triple game here to get concessions from both Russia and the US. We need to realize this and act accordingly.