[Goose]

Russian artillery is now firing ~20% of the shells it was firing in late 2022. Even areas of active offensives such as Bakhmut, Kreminna, Vuhledar are experiencing "shell hunger". Maybe China could provide enough to make a difference, but I'm skeptical they would send large quantities of artillery ammunition.

Totally agree that China will not provide much, if any, artillery ammunition. You just can't hide that kind of material support and the US/EU would react with tough sanctions. Bad for everybody and China gets no real benefit. Small important things they can "hide" is another matter.

It is also important to be aware that the large number of shells Russia fired earlier in this war often hit nothing. They have become smarter about their targeting. This accounts for much of the reduction. In fact, they send a bunch of convicts/conscripts out to provoke the Ukrainians into firing, thereby revealing their positions. They then shell the acquired targets. That said, nobody is swimming in excess artillery ammunition. The HIMARS effect has produced longer supply lines for Russia which constricts the rate the can move ammunition to the guns. Ukraine obviously has a limited supply of Russian era shells available and a limited number of NATO tubes. Both side's infantry complain about not enough fire support.

The Russian strategy of overwhelming artillery and meat grinder prisoner shock troops is already not working well, and will work less well as they run out of ammo and prisoner troops. Ukraine I'm sure is glad that Russia is wasting their combat potential before they have to absorb the Ukrainian offensive.

I too hope Russia is expending it's somewhat limited combat potential in less productive efforts. I am not very sure that a Ukrainian offensive is in the works "soon" or "in the spring". The combined arms/new equipment training that is going on is "only" going to yield a few thousand "trained" troops a month, best case. These troops will need to conduct further training and "shake out" their own organization to actually be able to execute a significant action. That is going to be May/June at best.

[Goose]

Russian artillery is now firing ~20% of the shells it was firing in late 2022. Even areas of active offensives such as Bakhmut, Kreminna, Vuhledar are experiencing "shell hunger". Maybe China could provide enough to make a difference, but I'm skeptical they would send large quantities of artillery ammunition.

Totally agree that China will not provide much, if any, artillery ammunition. You just can't hide that kind of material support and the US/EU would react with tough sanctions. Bad for everybody and China gets no real benefit. Small important things they can "hide" is another matter.

It is also important to be aware that the large number of shells Russia fired earlier in this war often hit nothing. They have become smarter about their targeting. This accounts for much of the reduction. In fact, they send a bunch of convicts/conscripts out to provoke the Ukrainians into firing, thereby revealing their positions. They then shell the acquired targets. That said, nobody is swimming in excess artillery ammunition. The HIMARS effect has produced longer supply lines for Russia which constricts the rate the can move ammunition to the guns. Ukraine obviously has a limited supply of Russian era shells available and a limited number of NATO tubes. Both side's infantry complain about not enough fire support.

The Russian strategy of overwhelming artillery and meat grinder prisoner shock troops is already not working well, and will work less well as they run out of ammo and prisoner troops. Ukraine I'm sure is glad that Russia is wasting their combat potential before they have to absorb the Ukrainian offensive.

I too hope Russia is expending it's somewhat limited combat potential in less productive efforts. I am not very sure that a Ukrainian offensive is in the works "soon" or "in the spring". The combined arms/new equipment training that is going on is "only" going to yield a few thousand "trained" troops a month, best case. These troops will need to conduct further training and "shake out" their own organization to actually be able to execute a significant action. That is going to be May/June at best.