[TrumpCard]

I don't think China will send significant amounts of ammunition to Russia. If anything, they will only send enough to convince Russia to give them a bulk discount on Russian oil/gas.  They'll acquire cheap energy while telling the US secretly that we shouldn't be upset since the quantities sent won't be an issue.  At least, that's my sense.

But if China wants to send a significant amount of military aid to Russia...well, at least that stuff isn't pointed toward Taiwan, which could be an even bigger geopolitical fracas (see: semiconductors).

I don't see a silver lining if China sends significant military aid to Russia.  The fact that the ammo isn't available to target Taiwan is not a major factor because China I'm sure has and/or can produce plenty.  The fact that China would likely become a pariah, thereby reducing the barrier/downside to invading Taiwan, would be much more salient.  Let's hope this doesn't become reality.

[TrumpCard]

I don't think China will send significant amounts of ammunition to Russia. If anything, they will only send enough to convince Russia to give them a bulk discount on Russian oil/gas.  They'll acquire cheap energy while telling the US secretly that we shouldn't be upset since the quantities sent won't be an issue.  At least, that's my sense.

But if China wants to send a significant amount of military aid to Russia...well, at least that stuff isn't pointed toward Taiwan, which could be an even bigger geopolitical fracas (see: semiconductors).

I don't see a silver lining if China sends significant military aid to Russia.  The fact that the ammo isn't available to target Taiwan is not a major factor because China I'm sure has and/or can produce plenty.  The fact that China would likely become a pariah, thereby reducing the barrier/downside to invading Taiwan, would be much more salient.  Let's hope this doesn't become reality.