[Goose]

I agree the key question on the Ukrainian side is how much of their forces (especially their higher quality/armored units) are committed to maintain the current level of defense. If the answer is almost all, then clearly they are in trouble given the number of Russian reserves.


If, on the other hand, they are maintaining their defense and bleeding Russian manpower/equipment while fighting with one hand behind their back and the other hand prepares for offensive operations, that bodes very well. The fact that we see little evidence of the Bradleys, Stryker's, CV 90s (not to mention tanks) being deployed on the front lines suggests this is the case.

You wouldn't see them there in any case. Ukraine is clearly fighting a defensive battle in that area and would only used a mobile striking force as either a fire brigade to contain a breakthrough (which Russia hasn't yet accomplished) or as a counter-attacking force designed to generate their own breakthrough. In general, it isn't good tank country (as Russia keeps proving). Armor is generally an offensive weapon or a defensive weapon against other armor. Mobility isn't an asset unless you are moving. Ukraine isn't at the moment.

IMO you are correct that if Ukraine is building an offensive force that is uncommitted and substantial, that can be a very good thing and make a big difference. It is unclear they are doing that, which is fine. What the Russians don't know is a weapon in itself. That said, an armored brigade by itself isn't going to be enough to take back Crimea, or probably even the rest of Kherson Oblast. That is the quantity of equipment Ukraine is apparently getting.
 
It remains to be seen what the totality of this independent force will be, in so far as it exists. It will almost certainly be deployed in the south (IMO), not the Donbas because there is too much vegetation there and because the more vulnerable area that will hurt Russia the most is in the south. If Ukraine is to "win" this war, that is where it has to be. If Russia just gives up, that is another case.

[Goose]

I agree the key question on the Ukrainian side is how much of their forces (especially their higher quality/armored units) are committed to maintain the current level of defense. If the answer is almost all, then clearly they are in trouble given the number of Russian reserves.


If, on the other hand, they are maintaining their defense and bleeding Russian manpower/equipment while fighting with one hand behind their back and the other hand prepares for offensive operations, that bodes very well. The fact that we see little evidence of the Bradleys, Stryker's, CV 90s (not to mention tanks) being deployed on the front lines suggests this is the case.

You wouldn't see them there in any case. Ukraine is clearly fighting a defensive battle in that area and would only used a mobile striking force as either a fire brigade to contain a breakthrough (which Russia hasn't yet accomplished) or as a counter-attacking force designed to generate their own breakthrough. In general, it isn't good tank country (as Russia keeps proving). Armor is generally an offensive weapon or a defensive weapon against other armor. Mobility isn't an asset unless you are moving. Ukraine isn't at the moment.

IMO you are correct that if Ukraine is building an offensive force that is uncommitted and substantial, that can be a very good thing and make a big difference. It is unclear they are doing that, which is fine. What the Russians don't know is a weapon in itself. That said, an armored brigade by itself isn't going to be enough to take back Crimea, or probably even the rest of Kherson Oblast. That is the quantity of equipment Ukraine is apparently getting.
 
It remains to be seen what the totality of this independent force will be, in so far as it exists. It will almost certainly be deployed in the south (IMO), not the Donbas because there is too much vegetation there and because the more vulnerable area that will hurt Russia the most is in the south. If Ukraine is to "win" this war, that is where it has to be. If Russia just gives up, that is another case.