[Goose]

The DefMon twitter account published a map today showing the gains/losses since the beginning of the year.  I don't vouch for its precise accuracy, but in the big picture I think it's roughly accurate and consistent with other sources.  It shows how small the change has been on the front lines over the past 2 months.  And that's about the same as the gains/losses since pre-Thanksgiving because I did not read about much territory changing hands in December either.  Even when Ukraine eventually withdraws from Bahkmut, I don't think Russia will gain enough territory to make a material difference along any metric.  Things can change quickly, but for the moment, the front line mostly does appear to be a stalemate.

You are correct that the front is not and has not been fluid. In theory, as things warm up and the mud season begins the front should be even less fluid for a while. After that period, both sides will be expected to "do something". Ukraine is clearly getting training and arms that should position them to do some damage. How much and exactly when is yet to be seen. I am guessing Ukraine's timeline might be late May/early June, not the end of rasputitsa. Russia OTOH is also training and organizing. They may plan some offensives as preemptive measures against Ukraine and/or the typical Russian "attack everywhere, find a soft spot, reinforce success". Putin may yet be forced to declare a general mobilization if he can't make anything happen by June.

[Goose]

The DefMon twitter account published a map today showing the gains/losses since the beginning of the year.  I don't vouch for its precise accuracy, but in the big picture I think it's roughly accurate and consistent with other sources.  It shows how small the change has been on the front lines over the past 2 months.  And that's about the same as the gains/losses since pre-Thanksgiving because I did not read about much territory changing hands in December either.  Even when Ukraine eventually withdraws from Bahkmut, I don't think Russia will gain enough territory to make a material difference along any metric.  Things can change quickly, but for the moment, the front line mostly does appear to be a stalemate.

You are correct that the front is not and has not been fluid. In theory, as things warm up and the mud season begins the front should be even less fluid for a while. After that period, both sides will be expected to "do something". Ukraine is clearly getting training and arms that should position them to do some damage. How much and exactly when is yet to be seen. I am guessing Ukraine's timeline might be late May/early June, not the end of rasputitsa. Russia OTOH is also training and organizing. They may plan some offensives as preemptive measures against Ukraine and/or the typical Russian "attack everywhere, find a soft spot, reinforce success". Putin may yet be forced to declare a general mobilization if he can't make anything happen by June.