[Goose]

Bakhmut is hardly worth saving anymore given how destroyed it is. It's almost like Ukraine is only defending the territory because it is a meat grinder for Wagner (Russian) forces that it is happy to grind down.

This much has been clear for some time.  There is a slight psychological benefit to Russia from capturing Bakhmut, but Ukraine has been much better at "doing the math" about how long to bleed the Russians before withdrawing.  I think they will withdraw soon, but they've held out longer than I expected.

BC

I'm impressed that Ukraine has hung on in Bakhmut for so long, but I am not sure whose "math" to trust, and I don't have a good sense as to whether Ukraine still is benefitting from using Bakhmut as a spot for a defensive stand.  For example, the DefMon twitter account today expressed a hope that Ukraine's public statements about reinforcing the city are psyops meant to facilitate a withdrawal.  I don't have any particularly good information that others lack, but I am concerned that Ukraine may be losing soldiers without sufficient reward and that continuing this battle may allow Russia to encircle some of Ukraine's remaining troops.  Is there reason to think that Bakhmut is positioned like Popasna, such that a withdrawal by Ukraine would be a key event that would allow Russia to make significant territorial gains?  (I would hope that Ukraine has had time by now to prepare a strong second line of defense, as well as defense in depth.)

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1630994947783491605

I have no "inside information" but I am pretty sure that Ukraine is being careful. They aren't going to commit troops that they don't see adequate ROI for the risk involved. I think Bakhmut is a "gateway to nowhere", unlike Popasna. That said, a collapse anywhere along the line can be exploited by a well organized enemy that can move rapidly. Russia hasn't shown much ability to do that, although there is always a first time. Ukraine seems to be very well aware of the dangers and has been IMHO very conservative in their recent actions. Mud season is also starting, which will slow everybody down.

[Goose]

Bakhmut is hardly worth saving anymore given how destroyed it is. It's almost like Ukraine is only defending the territory because it is a meat grinder for Wagner (Russian) forces that it is happy to grind down.

This much has been clear for some time.  There is a slight psychological benefit to Russia from capturing Bakhmut, but Ukraine has been much better at "doing the math" about how long to bleed the Russians before withdrawing.  I think they will withdraw soon, but they've held out longer than I expected.

BC

I'm impressed that Ukraine has hung on in Bakhmut for so long, but I am not sure whose "math" to trust, and I don't have a good sense as to whether Ukraine still is benefitting from using Bakhmut as a spot for a defensive stand.  For example, the DefMon twitter account today expressed a hope that Ukraine's public statements about reinforcing the city are psyops meant to facilitate a withdrawal.  I don't have any particularly good information that others lack, but I am concerned that Ukraine may be losing soldiers without sufficient reward and that continuing this battle may allow Russia to encircle some of Ukraine's remaining troops.  Is there reason to think that Bakhmut is positioned like Popasna, such that a withdrawal by Ukraine would be a key event that would allow Russia to make significant territorial gains?  (I would hope that Ukraine has had time by now to prepare a strong second line of defense, as well as defense in depth.)

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1630994947783491605

I have no "inside information" but I am pretty sure that Ukraine is being careful. They aren't going to commit troops that they don't see adequate ROI for the risk involved. I think Bakhmut is a "gateway to nowhere", unlike Popasna. That said, a collapse anywhere along the line can be exploited by a well organized enemy that can move rapidly. Russia hasn't shown much ability to do that, although there is always a first time. Ukraine seems to be very well aware of the dangers and has been IMHO very conservative in their recent actions. Mud season is also starting, which will slow everybody down.